This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 39% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 39% to break even | 44%–95% | 41 points betterwon 80%, needs 39% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 39% to break even | 35%–81% | 21 points betterwon 60%, needs 39% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 39% to break even | 39%–78% | 21 points betterwon 60%, needs 39% |
| This season | 5 of 683%needs 39% to break even | 50%–96% | 44 points betterwon 83%, needs 39% |
| Last season | 6 of 1346%needs 39% to break even | 26%–68% | 7 points betterwon 46%, needs 39% |
| Every game | 11 of 1958%needs 39% to break even | 39%–74% | 19 points betterwon 58%, needs 39% |
Tonight ILL plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against ORE. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Total points in each game against over 55.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Total points | Beat 55.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 10 | 75 | +19.5 | Won | |
| Oct 3 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 43.5 game total, ILL gamesIllinois Fighting Illini · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET |
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILL to win moneylineIllinois Fighting Illini · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET |
| 41 |
| -14.5 |
| Lost |
| Sep 26 | 61 | +5.5 | Won |
| Sep 19 | 58 | +2.5 | Won |
| Sep 12 | 58 | +2.5 | Won |
| Sep 3 | 65 | +9.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Dec 30 | 58 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 29 | 33 | -22.5 | Lost |
| Nov 22 | 37 | -18.5 | Lost |
| Nov 15 | 30 | -25.5 | Lost |
| Nov 1 | 48 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Oct 25 | 67 | +11.5 | Won |
| Oct 11 | 50 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Oct 4 | 70 | +14.5 | Won |
| Sep 27 | 66 | +10.5 | Won |
| Sep 20 | 73 | +17.5 | Won |
| Sep 13 | 38 | -17.5 | Lost |
| Sep 6 | 64 | +8.5 | Won |
| Aug 29 | 55 | -0.5 | Lost |
| 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 36% to break even |
| -19.5Not beating its price |
| Under 47.5 game total, ILL gamesIllinois Fighting Illini · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | +107at Polymarket | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 48% to break even | -29.1Not beating its price |
| Under 49.5 game total, ILL gamesIllinois Fighting Illini · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | -101at Polymarket | 5 of 13· last season38%needs 50% to break even | Record is last season's | -28.8Not beating its price |
| Under 50.5 game total, ILL gamesIllinois Fighting Illini · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | NV-104at Novig | 6 of 13· last season46%needs 51% to break even | Record is last season's | -27.4Not beating its price |
| Under 51.5 game total, ILL gamesIllinois Fighting Illini · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | -134at Polymarket | 6 of 13· last season46%needs 57% to break even | Record is last season's | -32.4Not beating its price |
| Under 53.5 game total, ILL gamesIllinois Fighting Illini · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | -164at Polymarket | 6 of 13· last season46%needs 62% to break even | Record is last season's | -36.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| 9 of 13· last season69%needs 25% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| 6.5Good |
| ILL +0.5 1st half spreadIllinois Fighting Illini · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | +166at Kalshi | 9 of 13· last season69%needs 38% to break even | Record is last season's | 2.4Slight |
| ILL +4.5 spreadIllinois Fighting Illini · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | +155at Polymarket | 9 of 13· last season69%needs 39% to break even | Record is last season's | 1.1Slight |
| ILL +6.5 1st half spreadIllinois Fighting Illini · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | -134at Polymarket | 13 of 15· last 15 games87%needs 57% to break even | 1.0Slight |
| ILL +7.5 spreadIllinois Fighting Illini · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | +107at Polymarket | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 48% to break even | 0.8Slight |
| ILL +2.5 1st half spreadIllinois Fighting Illini · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | +149at Polymarket | 9 of 13· last season69%needs 40% to break even | Record is last season's | 0.3Slight |
| ILL +5.5 spreadIllinois Fighting Illini · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | +143at Polymarket | 9 of 13· last season69%needs 41% to break even | Record is last season's | -0.5Not beating its price |
| ILL +6.5 spreadIllinois Fighting Illini · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | +137at Polymarket | 9 of 13· last season69%needs 42% to break even | Record is last season's | -1.3Not beating its price |
| ILL +8.5 spreadIllinois Fighting Illini · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | -105at Polymarket | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 51% to break even | -1.5Not beating its price |
| ILL +9 spreadIllinois Fighting Illini · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | LVG-106at LowVig | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 51% to break even | -1.7Not beating its price |
| ILL +4.5 1st half spreadIllinois Fighting Illini · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | -109at Polymarket | 11 of 13· last season85%needs 52% to break even | Record is last season's | -2.3Not beating its price |
| ILL +3.5 spreadIllinois Fighting Illini · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | +177at Polymarket | 9 of 13· last season69%needs 36% to break even | Record is last season's | -2.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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