This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 42% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 42% to break even | 27%–86% | 18 points betterwon 60%, needs 42% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 42% to break even | 44%–87% | 28 points betterwon 70%, needs 42% |
| Last 15 games | 10 of 1567%needs 42% to break even | 46%–83% | 24 points betterwon 67%, needs 42% |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 42% to break even | 35%–88% | 24 points betterwon 67%, needs 42% |
| Last season | 9 of 1369%needs 42% to break even | 46%–85% | 27 points betterwon 69%, needs 42% |
| Every game | 13 of 1968%needs 42% to break even | 50%–83% | 26 points betterwon 68%, needs 42% |
Tonight ILL plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against ORE. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against ill +6.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin | Beat -6.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 10 | 1 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Oct 3 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILL to win moneylineIllinois Fighting Illini · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET |
| -7 |
| -0.5 |
| Lost |
| Sep 26 | -23 | -16.5 | Lost |
| Sep 19 | 38 | +44.5 | Won |
| Sep 12 | -4 | +2.5 | Won |
| Sep 3 | 19 | +25.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Dec 30 | 2 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Nov 29 | 7 | +13.5 | Won |
| Nov 22 | -17 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Nov 15 | 18 | +24.5 | Won |
| Nov 1 | 22 | +28.5 | Won |
| Oct 25 | -17 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Oct 11 | -18 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Oct 4 | 16 | +22.5 | Won |
| Sep 27 | 2 | +8.5 | Won |
| Sep 20 | -53 | -46.5 | Lost |
| Sep 13 | 38 | +44.5 | Won |
| Sep 6 | 26 | +32.5 | Won |
| Aug 29 | 49 | +55.5 | Won |
| 9 of 13· last season69%needs 25% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| 6.5Good |
| ILL +0.5 1st half spreadIllinois Fighting Illini · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | +159at Kalshi | 9 of 13· last season69%needs 39% to break even | Record is last season's | 1.6Slight |
| ILL +6.5 1st half spreadIllinois Fighting Illini · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | -134at Polymarket | 13 of 15· last 15 games87%needs 57% to break even | 1.0Slight |
| ILL +2.5 1st half spreadIllinois Fighting Illini · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | +149at Polymarket | 9 of 13· last season69%needs 40% to break even | Record is last season's | 0.3Slight |
| Over 55.5 game total, ILL gamesIllinois Fighting Illini · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | +155at Polymarket | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 39% to break even | Record is this season's | -1.0Not beating its price |
| ILL +4.5 1st half spreadIllinois Fighting Illini · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | -109at Polymarket | 11 of 13· last season85%needs 52% to break even | Record is last season's | -2.3Not beating its price |
| ILL +5.5 1st half spreadIllinois Fighting Illini · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | -119at Polymarket | 11 of 13· last season85%needs 54% to break even | Record is last season's | -4.0Not beating its price |
| Over 53.5 game total, ILL gamesIllinois Fighting Illini · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | +121at Polymarket | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 45% to break even | Record is this season's | -4.6Not beating its price |
| Over 51.5 game total, ILL gamesIllinois Fighting Illini · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | +112at Polymarket | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 47% to break even | Record is this season's | -6.1Not beating its price |
| Over 50.5 game total, ILL gamesIllinois Fighting Illini · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | NV+102at Novig | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 50% to break even | Record is this season's | -7.9Not beating its price |
| Over 49.5 game total, ILL gamesIllinois Fighting Illini · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | -114at Polymarket | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 53% to break even | Record is this season's | -8.6Not beating its price |
| Over 47.5 game total, ILL gamesIllinois Fighting Illini · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | -145at Polymarket | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 59% to break even | -10.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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