This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 52% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 52% to break even | 27%–86% | 8 points betterwon 60%, needs 52% |
| Last 10 games | 8 of 1080%needs 52% to break even | 54%–93% | 28 points betterwon 80%, needs 52% |
| Last 15 games | 12 of 1580%needs 52% to break even | 59%–92% | 28 points betterwon 80%, needs 52% |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 52% to break even | 35%–88% | 15 points betterwon 67%, needs 52% |
| Last season | 11 of 1385%needs 52% to break even | 63%–95% | 32 points betterwon 85%, needs 52% |
| Every game | 15 of 1979%needs 52% to break even | 60%–90% | 27 points betterwon 79%, needs 52% |
Tonight ILL plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against ORE. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
1H margin in each game against ill 1h +4.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 1H margin | Beat -4.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 10 | 13 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Oct 3 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILL to win moneylineIllinois Fighting Illini · Sat, Oct 24, 3:00 PM ET |
| -6 |
| -1.5 |
| Lost |
| Sep 26 | -18 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Sep 19 | 21 | +25.5 | Won |
| Sep 12 | 3 | +7.5 | Won |
| Sep 3 | 8 | +12.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Dec 30 | 3 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Nov 29 | 4 | +8.5 | Won |
| Nov 22 | -3 | +1.5 | Won |
| Nov 15 | 8 | +12.5 | Won |
| Nov 1 | 15 | +19.5 | Won |
| Oct 25 | -4 | +0.5 | Won |
| Oct 11 | -17 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Oct 4 | 13 | +17.5 | Won |
| Sep 27 | 4 | +8.5 | Won |
| Sep 20 | -25 | -20.5 | Lost |
| Sep 13 | 10 | +14.5 | Won |
| Sep 6 | 1 | +5.5 | Won |
| Aug 29 | 31 | +35.5 | Won |
| 9 of 13· last season69%needs 25% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| 6.5Good |
| ILL +4.5 spreadIllinois Fighting Illini · Sat, Oct 24, 3:00 PM ET | +155at Polymarket | 9 of 13· last season69%needs 39% to break even | Record is last season's | 1.1Slight |
| ILL +7.5 spreadIllinois Fighting Illini · Sat, Oct 24, 3:00 PM ET | +107at Polymarket | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 48% to break even | 0.8Slight |
| ILL +5.5 spreadIllinois Fighting Illini · Sat, Oct 24, 3:00 PM ET | +143at Polymarket | 9 of 13· last season69%needs 41% to break even | Record is last season's | -0.5Not beating its price |
| Over 55.5 game total, ILL gamesIllinois Fighting Illini · Sat, Oct 24, 3:00 PM ET | +155at Polymarket | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 39% to break even | Record is this season's | -1.0Not beating its price |
| ILL +6.5 spreadIllinois Fighting Illini · Sat, Oct 24, 3:00 PM ET | +137at Polymarket | 9 of 13· last season69%needs 42% to break even | Record is last season's | -1.3Not beating its price |
| ILL +8.5 spreadIllinois Fighting Illini · Sat, Oct 24, 3:00 PM ET | -105at Polymarket | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 51% to break even | -1.5Not beating its price |
| ILL +3.5 spreadIllinois Fighting Illini · Sat, Oct 24, 3:00 PM ET | +185at Polymarket | 9 of 13· last season69%needs 35% to break even | Record is last season's | -1.6Not beating its price |
| ILL +9 spreadIllinois Fighting Illini · Sat, Oct 24, 3:00 PM ET | LVG-106at LowVig | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 51% to break even | -1.7Not beating its price |
| Over 53.5 game total, ILL gamesIllinois Fighting Illini · Sat, Oct 24, 3:00 PM ET | +121at Polymarket | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 45% to break even | Record is this season's | -4.6Not beating its price |
| Over 51.5 game total, ILL gamesIllinois Fighting Illini · Sat, Oct 24, 3:00 PM ET | +112at Polymarket | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 47% to break even | Record is this season's | -6.1Not beating its price |
| ILL +10.5 spreadIllinois Fighting Illini · Sat, Oct 24, 3:00 PM ET | -134at Polymarket | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 57% to break even | -6.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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