This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 65% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 5 of 5100%needs 65% to break even | 65%–100% | 35 points betterwon 100%, needs 65% |
| Last 10 games | 8 of 1080%needs 65% to break even | 54%–93% | 15 points betterwon 80%, needs 65% |
| Last 15 games | 12 of 1580%needs 65% to break even | 59%–92% | 15 points betterwon 80%, needs 65% |
| This season | 1 of 1100%needs 65% to break even | 27%–100% | 35 points betterwon 100%, needs 65% |
| Last season | 56 of 8367%needs 65% to break even | 59%–75% | 2 points betterwon 67%, needs 65% |
| Every game | 57 of 8468%needs 65% to break even | 59%–76% | 3 points betterwon 68%, needs 65% |
Tonight MIA plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against DET. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Total points in each game against over 230.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 227.5 game total, MIA gamesMiami Heat · Today 8:10 PM ET |
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 123.5 1st half totalMiami Heat · Today 8:10 PM ET |
| Date | Opponent | Total points | Beat 230.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 | 237 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 14 | 253 | +22.5 | Won | |
| Apr 12 | 260 | +29.5 | Won | |
| Apr 10 | 257 | +26.5 | Won | |
| Apr 9 | 242 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Apr 7 | 216 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 4 | 288 | +57.5 | Won | |
| Apr 1 | 276 | +45.5 | Won | |
| Mar 30 | 228 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 29 | 253 | +22.5 | Won | |
| Mar 27 | 277 | +46.5 | Won | |
| Mar 25 | 223 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 23 | 247 | +16.5 | Won | |
| Mar 21 | 245 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Mar 19 | 260 | +29.5 | Won | |
| Mar 17 | 242 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Mar 14 | 238 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Mar 12 | 217 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 10 | 279 | +48.5 | Won | |
| Mar 8 | 231 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 6 | 248 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Mar 5 | 236 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Mar 3 | 222 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 28 | 220 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 26 | 241 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Feb 24 | 245 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Feb 21 | 256 | +25.5 | Won | |
| Feb 20 | 225 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 11 | 234 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Feb 9 | 226 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 8 | 233 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Feb 6 | 194 | -36.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 3 | 242 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Feb 1 | 225 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 31 | 243 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Jan 29 | 229 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 28 | 257 | +26.5 | Won | |
| Jan 25 | 213 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 24 | 263 | +32.5 | Won | |
| Jan 22 | 237 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Jan 20 | 247 | +16.5 | Won | |
| Jan 19 | 247 | +16.5 | Won | |
| Jan 17 | 242 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Jan 15 | 233 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 13 | 248 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Jan 11 | 236 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Jan 10 | 222 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 6 | 216 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 4 | 231 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 3 | 240 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Jan 1 | 230 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 29 | 270 | +39.5 | Won | |
| Dec 27 | 258 | +27.5 | Won | |
| Dec 26 | 237 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Dec 23 | 203 | -27.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 21 | 257 | +26.5 | Won | |
| Dec 19 | 245 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Dec 18 | 201 | -29.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 15 | 202 | -28.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 9 | 225 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 6 | 238 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Dec 5 | 211 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 3 | 226 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 1 | 263 | +32.5 | Won | |
| Nov 29 | 273 | +42.5 | Won | |
| Nov 26 | 209 | -21.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 24 | 208 | -22.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 23 | 244 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Nov 21 | 250 | +19.5 | Won | |
| Nov 19 | 206 | -24.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 17 | 228 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 14 | 272 | +41.5 | Won | |
| Nov 12 | 246 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Nov 10 | 278 | +47.5 | Won | |
| Nov 8 | 267 | +36.5 | Won | |
| Nov 7 | 234 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Nov 5 | 234 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Nov 3 | 239 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Nov 2 | 250 | +19.5 | Won | |
| Oct 30 | 208 | -22.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 28 | 261 | +30.5 | Won | |
| Oct 26 | 222 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 24 | 260 | +29.5 | Won | |
| Oct 22 | 246 | +15.5 | Won | |
| 23 of 83· last season28%needs 33% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -24.8Not beating its price |
| Under 229.5 game total, MIA gamesMiami Heat · Today 8:10 PM ET | +166at Kalshi | 26 of 83· last season31%needs 38% to break even | Record is last season's | -26.0Not beating its price |
| Under 230.5 game total, MIA gamesMiami Heat · Today 8:10 PM ET | +155at Polymarket | 27 of 83· last season33%needs 39% to break even | Record is last season's | -27.3Not beating its price |
| Under 231.5 game total, MIA gamesMiami Heat · Today 8:10 PM ET | +152at Kalshi | 29 of 83· last season35%needs 40% to break even | Record is last season's | -27.3Not beating its price |
| Under 232.5 game total, MIA gamesMiami Heat · Today 8:10 PM ET | +131at Polymarket | 29 of 83· last season35%needs 43% to break even | Record is last season's | -30.7Not beating its price |
| Under 233.5 game total, MIA gamesMiami Heat · Today 8:10 PM ET | +116at Polymarket | 31 of 83· last season37%needs 46% to break even | Record is last season's | -33.0Not beating its price |
| Under 235.5 game total, MIA gamesMiami Heat · Today 8:10 PM ET | -101at Polymarket | 34 of 83· last season41%needs 50% to break even | Record is last season's | -36.0Not beating its price |
| Under 236.5 game total, MIA gamesMiami Heat · Today 8:10 PM ET | +105at BetRivers | 36 of 83· last season43%needs 49% to break even | Record is last season's | -34.1Not beating its price |
| Under 237.5 game total, MIA gamesMiami Heat · Today 8:10 PM ET | -126at Kalshi | 38 of 83· last season46%needs 56% to break even | Record is last season's | -36.6Not beating its price |
| Under 238.5 game total, MIA gamesMiami Heat · Today 8:10 PM ET | -134at Polymarket | 40 of 83· last season48%needs 57% to break even | Record is last season's | -37.5Not beating its price |
| Under 239.5 game total, MIA gamesMiami Heat · Today 8:10 PM ET | -142at Kalshi | 41 of 83· last season49%needs 59% to break even | Record is last season's | -38.6Not beating its price |
| Under 240.5 game total, MIA gamesMiami Heat · Today 8:10 PM ET | -158at Polymarket | 42 of 83· last season51%needs 61% to break even | Record is last season's | -40.8Not beating its price |
| Under 241.5 game total, MIA gamesMiami Heat · Today 8:10 PM ET | -175at Kalshi | 43 of 83· last season52%needs 64% to break even | Record is last season's | -42.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 47% to break even |
| -8.9Not beating its price |
| Over 122.5 team totalMiami Heat · Today 8:10 PM ET | +152at Kalshi | 35 of 83· last season42%needs 40% to break even | Record is last season's | -10.3Not beating its price |
| Over 118.5 team totalMiami Heat · Today 8:10 PM ET | -103at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 51% to break even | -11.4Not beating its price |
| Over 120.5 team totalMiami Heat · Today 8:10 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 39 of 83· last season47%needs 44% to break even | Record is last season's | -11.5Not beating its price |
| Over 116.5 team totalMiami Heat · Today 8:10 PM ET | -142at Kalshi | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 59% to break even | -13.0Not beating its price |
| MIA -6.5 spreadMiami Heat · Today 8:10 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 33 of 83· last season40%needs 36% to break even | Record is last season's | -14.1Not beating its price |
| MIA -5.5 spreadMiami Heat · Today 8:10 PM ET | +169at Polymarket | 35 of 83· last season42%needs 37% to break even | Record is last season's | -15.1Not beating its price |
| Over 121.5 1st half totalMiami Heat · Today 8:10 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 55% to break even | -16.0Not beating its price |
| MIA -1.5 1st quarter spreadMiami Heat · Today 8:10 PM ET | +114at Kalshi | 47 of 83· last season57%needs 47% to break even | Record is last season's | -16.0Not beating its price |
| Over 63.5 1st quarter totalMiami Heat · Today 8:10 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 35 of 83· last season42%needs 44% to break even | Record is last season's | -16.3Not beating its price |
| Over 114.5 team totalMiami Heat · Today 8:10 PM ET | -183at Kalshi | 57 of 83· last season69%needs 65% to break even | Record is last season's | -16.5Not beating its price |
| MIA -4.5 1st half spreadMiami Heat · Today 8:10 PM ET | +166at Kalshi | 36 of 83· last season43%needs 38% to break even | Record is last season's | -17.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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