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Won35 of 83last season · 42%
Best price+169Polymarket
Price needs37.2%wins to break even
Every game35 of 84this season and last
Trend score-15.1Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 37% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 37% to break even | 14%–73% | 3 points betterwon 40%, needs 37% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 37% to break even | 19%–65% | 3 points betterwon 40%, needs 37% |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 37% to break even | 17%–54% | 4 points shortwon 33%, needs 37% |
| This season | 0 of 10%needs 37% to break even | 0%–73% | 37 points shortwon 0%, needs 37% |
| Last season | 35 of 8342%needs 37% to break even | 34%–51% | 5 points betterwon 42%, needs 37% |
| Every game | 35 of 8442%needs 37% to break even | 33%–51% | 4 points betterwon 42%, needs 37% |
Games like tonight
Tonight MIA plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against DET. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Every book's price
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MIA -5.5 (spread)2 books
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
Margin in each game against mia -5.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin | Beat 5.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 |  MIN | -25 | -30.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 14 |  CHA | -1 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Apr 12 |  ATL | 26 | +20.5 | Won |
| Apr 10 |  WSH | 23 | +17.5 | Won |
| Apr 9 |  TOR | -14 | -19.5 | Lost |
| Apr 7 | TOR | -26 | -31.5 | Lost |
| Apr 4 | WSH | 16 | +10.5 | Won |
| Apr 1 |  BOS | -18 | -23.5 | Lost |
| Mar 30 |  PHI | 10 | +4.5 | Won |
| Mar 29 |  IND | -17 | -22.5 | Lost |
| Mar 27 |  CLE | -21 | -26.5 | Lost |
| Mar 25 | CLE | 17 | +11.5 | Won |
| Mar 23 |  SA | -25 | -30.5 | Lost |
| Mar 21 |  HOU | -1 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Mar 19 |  LAL | -8 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Mar 17 | CHA | -30 | -35.5 | Lost |
| Mar 14 |  ORL | -4 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Mar 12 |  MIL | 7 | +1.5 | Won |
| Mar 10 | WSH | 21 | +15.5 | Won |
| Mar 8 |  DET | 11 | +5.5 | Won |
| Mar 6 | CHA | 8 | +2.5 | Won |
| Mar 5 |  BKN | 16 | +10.5 | Won |
| Mar 3 | BKN | 26 | +20.5 | Won |
| Feb 28 | HOU | 10 | +4.5 | Won |
| Feb 26 | PHI | -7 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Feb 24 | MIL | -11 | -16.5 | Lost |
| Feb 21 |  MEM | 16 | +10.5 | Won |
| Feb 20 | ATL | 31 | +25.5 | Won |
| Feb 11 |  NO | 12 | +6.5 | Won |
| Feb 9 |  UTAH | -4 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Feb 8 | WSH | 31 | +25.5 | Won |
| Feb 6 | BOS | -2 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Feb 3 | ATL | -12 | -17.5 | Lost |
| Feb 1 |  CHI | 43 | +37.5 | Won |
| Jan 31 | CHI | -7 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Jan 29 | CHI | 3 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Jan 28 | ORL | -9 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Jan 25 |  PHX | 9 | +3.5 | Won |
| Jan 24 | UTAH | 31 | +25.5 | Won |
| Jan 22 |  POR | -17 | -22.5 | Lost |
| Jan 20 |  SAC | 13 | +7.5 | Won |
| Jan 19 |  GS | -23 | -28.5 | Lost |
| Jan 17 |  OKC | 2 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Jan 15 | BOS | -5 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Jan 13 | PHX | 6 | +0.5 | Won |
| Jan 11 | OKC | -12 | -17.5 | Lost |
| Jan 10 | IND | -24 | -29.5 | Lost |
| Jan 6 | MIN | -28 | -33.5 | Lost |
| Jan 4 | NO | 19 | +13.5 | Won |
| Jan 3 | MIN | -10 | -15.5 | Lost |
| Jan 1 | DET | 6 | +0.5 | Won |
| Dec 29 |  DEN | 24 | +18.5 | Won |
| Dec 27 | IND | 26 | +20.5 | Won |
| Dec 26 | ATL | 15 | +9.5 | Won |
| Dec 23 | TOR | -21 | -26.5 | Lost |
| Dec 21 |  NY | -7 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Dec 19 | BOS | -13 | -18.5 | Lost |
| Dec 18 | BKN | 11 | +5.5 | Won |
| Dec 15 | TOR | -10 | -15.5 | Lost |
| Dec 9 | ORL | -9 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Dec 6 | SAC | -16 | -21.5 | Lost |
| Dec 5 | ORL | -1 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Dec 3 |  DAL | -10 | -15.5 | Lost |
| Dec 1 |  LAC | 17 | +11.5 | Won |
| Nov 29 | DET | -3 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Nov 26 | MIL | 3 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Nov 24 | DAL | 4 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Nov 23 | PHI | 10 | +4.5 | Won |
| Nov 21 | CHI | 36 | +30.5 | Won |
| Nov 19 | GS | 14 | +8.5 | Won |
| Nov 17 | NY | 2 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Nov 14 | NY | -8 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Nov 12 | CLE | -14 | -19.5 | Lost |
| Nov 10 | CLE | 2 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Nov 8 | POR | 5 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Nov 7 | CHA | 18 | +12.5 | Won |
| Nov 5 | DEN | -10 | -15.5 | Lost |
| Nov 3 | LAC | 1 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Nov 2 | LAL | -10 | -15.5 | Lost |
| Oct 30 | SA | -6 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Oct 28 | CHA | 27 | +21.5 | Won |
| Oct 26 | NY | 8 | +2.5 | Won |
| Oct 24 | MEM | 32 | +26.5 | Won |
| Oct 22 | ORL | -4 | -9.5 | Lost |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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More on Miami Heat in this game
This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.