This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 50% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 50% to break even | 14%–73% | 10 points shortwon 40%, needs 50% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 50% to break even | 19%–65% | 10 points shortwon 40%, needs 50% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 50% to break even | 39%–78% | 10 points betterwon 60%, needs 50% |
| This season | 1 of 1100%needs 50% to break even | 27%–100% | 50 points betterwon 100%, needs 50% |
| Last season | 32 of 8239%needs 50% to break even | 31%–48% | 11 points shortwon 39%, needs 50% |
| Every game | 33 of 8340%needs 50% to break even | 31%–49% | 10 points shortwon 40%, needs 50% |
Tonight IND plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against DAL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Total points in each game against over 238, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Total points | Beat 238 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 | 243 | +5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 12 | 254 | +16 | Won | |
| Apr 10 | 199 | -39 | Lost | |
| Apr 9 | 217 | -21 | Lost | |
| Apr 7 | 228 | -10 | Lost | |
| Apr 5 | 225 | -13 | Lost | |
| Apr 3 | 237 | -1 | Lost | |
| Apr 1 | 271 | +33 | Won | |
| Mar 29 | 253 | +15 | Won | |
| Mar 27 | 227 | -11 | Lost | |
| Mar 25 | 267 | +29 | Won | |
| Mar 23 | 254 | +16 | Won | |
| Mar 21 | 253 | +15 | Won | |
| Mar 18 | 246 | +8 | Won | |
| Mar 17 | 246 | +8 | Won | |
| Mar 15 | 257 | +19 | Won | |
| Mar 13 | 193 | -45 | Lost | |
| Mar 12 | 231 | -7 | Lost | |
| Mar 10 | 223 | -15 | Lost | |
| Mar 8 | 242 | +4 | Won | |
| Mar 6 | 245 | +7 | Won | |
| Mar 4 | 237 | -1 | Lost | |
| Mar 1 | 231 | -7 | Lost | |
| Feb 26 | 242 | +4 | Won | |
| Feb 24 | 249 | +11 | Won | |
| Feb 22 | 264 | +26 | Won | |
| Feb 20 | 249 | +11 | Won | |
| Feb 19 | 217 | -21 | Lost | |
| Feb 11 | 225 | -13 | Lost | |
| Feb 10 | 271 | +33 | Won | |
| Feb 8 | 226 | -12 | Lost | |
| Feb 6 | 204 | -34 | Lost | |
| Feb 3 | 253 | +15 | Won | |
| Feb 2 | 232 | -6 | Lost | |
| Jan 31 | 253 | +15 | Won | |
| Jan 28 | 223 | -15 | Lost | |
| Jan 26 | 248 | +10 | Won | |
| Jan 23 | 231 | -7 | Lost | |
| Jan 21 | 223 | -15 | Lost | |
| Jan 19 | 217 | -21 | Lost | |
| Jan 17 | 199 | -39 | Lost | |
| Jan 16 | 246 | +8 | Won | |
| Jan 14 | 216 | -22 | Lost | |
| Jan 12 | 194 | -44 | Lost | |
| Jan 10 | 222 | -16 | Lost | |
| Jan 8 | 226 | -12 | Lost | |
| Jan 6 | 236 | -2 | Lost | |
| Jan 4 | 262 | +24 | Won | |
| Jan 2 | 236 | -2 | Lost | |
| Dec 31 | 222 | -16 | Lost | |
| Dec 29 | 245 | +7 | Won | |
| Dec 27 | 258 | +20 | Won | |
| Dec 26 | 262 | +24 | Won | |
| Dec 23 | 205 | -33 | Lost | |
| Dec 22 | 198 | -40 | Lost | |
| Dec 20 | 237 | -1 | Lost | |
| Dec 18 | 227 | -11 | Lost | |
| Dec 14 | 197 | -41 | Lost | |
| Dec 12 | 220 | -18 | Lost | |
| Dec 8 | 221 | -17 | Lost | |
| Dec 5 | 225 | -13 | Lost | |
| Dec 3 | 255 | +17 | Won | |
| Dec 1 | 254 | +16 | Won | |
| Nov 29 | 204 | -34 | Lost | |
| Nov 28 | 205 | -33 | Lost | |
| Nov 26 | 192 | -46 | Lost | |
| Nov 24 | 239 | +1 | Won | |
| Nov 21 | 229 | -9 | Lost | |
| Nov 19 | 245 | +7 | Won | |
| Nov 17 | 239 | +1 | Won | |
| Nov 15 | 240 | +2 | Won | |
| Nov 13 | 231 | -7 | Lost | |
| Nov 11 | 280 | +42 | Won | |
| Nov 9 | 197 | -41 | Lost | |
| Nov 8 | 217 | -21 | Lost | |
| Nov 5 | 215 | -23 | Lost | |
| Nov 3 | 232 | -6 | Lost | |
| Nov 1 | 223 | -15 | Lost | |
| Oct 31 | 236 | -2 | Lost | |
| Oct 29 | 212 | -26 | Lost | |
| Oct 26 | 224 | -14 | Lost | |
| Oct 25 | 231 | -7 | Lost | |
| Oct 23 | 276 | +38 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.