This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 40% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 40% to break even | 5%–56% | 20 points shortwon 20%, needs 40% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 40% to break even | 13%–56% | 10 points shortwon 30%, needs 40% |
| Last 15 games | 3 of 1520%needs 40% to break even | 8%–41% | 20 points shortwon 20%, needs 40% |
| This season | 0 of 10%needs 40% to break even | 0%–73% | 40 points shortwon 0%, needs 40% |
| Last season | 7 of 829%needs 40% to break even | 5%–15% | 31 points shortwon 9%, needs 40% |
| Every game | 7 of 838%needs 40% to break even | 5%–15% | 32 points shortwon 8%, needs 40% |
Tonight IND plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against DAL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against ind -9.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin | Beat 9.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 | 3 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 12 | -12 | -21.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 10 | -11 | -20.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 9 | 29 | +19.5 | Won | |
| Apr 7 | -20 | -29.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 5 | -9 | -18.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 3 | -21 | -30.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 1 | 19 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Mar 29 | 17 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Mar 27 | -1 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 25 | -7 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 23 | 2 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 21 | -15 | -24.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 18 | -8 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 17 | -26 | -35.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 15 | -11 | -20.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 13 | -9 | -18.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 12 | -15 | -24.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 10 | -5 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 8 | -20 | -29.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 6 | -11 | -20.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 4 | -23 | -32.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 1 | -19 | -28.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 26 | -24 | -33.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 24 | -21 | -30.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 22 | -4 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 20 | -13 | -22.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 19 | -7 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 11 | 5 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 10 | 3 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 8 | -18 | -27.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 6 | -6 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 3 | -9 | -18.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 2 | -4 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 31 | 5 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 28 | 3 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 26 | -16 | -25.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 23 | 3 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 21 | -15 | -24.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 19 | -9 | -18.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 17 | -43 | -52.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 16 | 8 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 14 | -14 | -23.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 12 | 2 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 10 | 24 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Jan 8 | 2 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 6 | -4 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 4 | -8 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 2 | -10 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 31 | -2 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 29 | -7 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 27 | -26 | -35.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 26 | -18 | -27.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 23 | -17 | -26.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 22 | -8 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 20 | -19 | -28.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 18 | -1 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 14 | -19 | -28.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 12 | -10 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 8 | 11 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 5 | 15 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Dec 3 | -15 | -24.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 1 | -16 | -25.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | 2 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 28 | 33 | +23.5 | Won | |
| Nov 26 | -2 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 24 | -5 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 21 | -11 | -20.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 19 | 9 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 17 | -15 | -24.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 15 | -18 | -27.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 13 | -35 | -44.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 11 | -24 | -33.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 9 | -31 | -40.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 8 | -17 | -26.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 5 | -9 | -18.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 3 | -2 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 1 | 5 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 31 | -20 | -29.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 29 | -2 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 26 | -4 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 25 | -25 | -34.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 23 | -6 | -15.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.