This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 48% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 48% to break even | 14%–73% | 8 points shortwon 40%, needs 48% | 18.6points |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 48% to break even | 35%–81% | 12 points betterwon 60%, needs 48% | 23.9points |
| Last 15 games | 10 of 1567%needs 48% to break even | 46%–83% | 19 points betterwon 67%, needs 48% | 24.9points |
| This season | 1 of 250%needs 48% to break even | 12%–88% | 2 points betterwon 50%, needs 48% | 18.5points |
| Last season |
Tonight PHI plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against MIL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 17 of 26 at home.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Points in each game against over 23.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 54%–77% |
| 19 points betterwon 67%, needs 48% |
| 26.4points |
| Every game | 31 of 4766%needs 48% to break even | 54%–76% | 18 points betterwon 66%, needs 48% | 26.1points |
| Date | Opponent | Points | Beat 23.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 22 | 24 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 20 | 13 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 10 | 24 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 8 | 18 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| May 4 | 14 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| May 2 | 34 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Apr 30 | 19 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 28 | 33 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Apr 26 | 26 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 6 | 34 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Apr 3 | 19 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 30 | 26 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 28 | 29 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Mar 25 | 35 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Feb 26 | 26 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Feb 24 | 27 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Feb 7 | 33 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Feb 5 | 35 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Feb 2 | 24 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 31 | 40 | +16.5 | Won | |
| Jan 29 | 37 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Jan 27 | 29 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Jan 24 | 38 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Jan 22 | 32 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Jan 19 | 30 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Jan 16 | 33 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Jan 14 | 20 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 12 | 27 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jan 9 | 22 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 7 | 28 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Jan 5 | 32 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Jan 3 | 26 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 1 | 22 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 30 | 34 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Dec 26 | 31 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Dec 23 | 27 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Dec 14 | 22 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 12 | 39 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Dec 7 | 16 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 4 | 12 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 30 | 18 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 8 | 29 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Nov 4 | 20 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 31 | 20 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 28 | 25 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 25 | 20 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 22 | 4 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| +180at Bovada |
| 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 36% to break even6 of 26 at home |
| -16.0Not beating its price |
| Under 20.5 pointsJoel Embiid · Today 7:40 PM ET | +145at Bovada | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 41% to break even9 of 26 at home | -19.1Not beating its price |
| Under 21.5 pointsJoel Embiid · Today 7:40 PM ET | +120at Bovada | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 45% to break even9 of 26 at home | -23.3Not beating its price |
| Under 22.5 pointsJoel Embiid · Today 7:40 PM ET | +100at FanDuel | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 50% to break even9 of 26 at home | -26.2Not beating its price |
| Under 23.5 pointsJoel Embiid · Today 7:40 PM ET | -130at Bovada | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 57% to break even9 of 26 at home | -32.1Not beating its price |
| Under 24.5 pointsJoel Embiid · Today 7:40 PM ET | -142at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 59% to break even11 of 26 at home | -20.3Not beating its price |
| Under 25.5 pointsJoel Embiid · Today 7:40 PM ET | -190at Bovada | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 66% to break even11 of 26 at home | -26.0Not beating its price |
| Under 26.5 pointsJoel Embiid · Today 7:40 PM ET | -240at Bovada | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 71% to break even13 of 26 at home | -21.7Not beating its price |
| Under 27.5 pointsJoel Embiid · Today 7:40 PM ET | -300at Bovada | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 75% to break even14 of 26 at home | -24.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +160at Bovada |
| 26 of 45· last season58%needs 38% to break even15 of 26 at home |
| Record is last season's |
| -2.1Not beating its price |
| Gets a triple-doubleJoel Embiid · Today 7:40 PM ET | +3500at FanDuel | 1 of 45· last season2%needs 3% to break even1 of 26 at home | Record is last season's | -2.4Not beating its price |
| Over 5.5 assistsJoel Embiid · Today 7:40 PM ET | +296at Kalshi | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 25% to break even6 of 26 at home | -4.3Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 threesJoel Embiid · Today 7:40 PM ET | -104at DraftKings | 30 of 45· last season67%needs 51% to break even17 of 26 at home | Record is last season's | -9.6Not beating its price |
| Under 11.5 reb + astJoel Embiid · Today 7:40 PM ET | +155at Bovada | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 39% to break even13 of 26 at home | -10.0Not beating its price |
| Under 8.5 reboundsJoel Embiid · Today 7:40 PM ET | +105at BetMGM | 27 of 45· last season60%needs 49% to break even15 of 26 at home | Record is last season's | -11.0Not beating its price |
| Under 33.5 pts + reb + astJoel Embiid · Today 7:40 PM ET | +140at Bovada | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 42% to break even9 of 26 at home | -11.5Not beating its price |
| Under 12.5 reb + astJoel Embiid · Today 7:40 PM ET | +105at Bovada | 28 of 45· last season62%needs 49% to break even15 of 26 at home | Record is last season's | -12.0Not beating its price |
| Under 13.5 reb + astJoel Embiid · Today 7:40 PM ET | -135at Bovada | 32 of 45· last season71%needs 57% to break even18 of 26 at home | Record is last season's | -12.6Not beating its price |
| Over 4.5 assistsJoel Embiid · Today 7:40 PM ET | +132at FanDuel | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 43% to break even9 of 26 at home | -12.8Not beating its price |
| Over 26.5 pts + astJoel Embiid · Today 7:40 PM ET | -118at BetRivers | 32 of 45· last season71%needs 54% to break even17 of 26 at home | Record is last season's | -14.2Not beating its price |
| Over 29.5 pts + astJoel Embiid · Today 7:40 PM ET | +145at BetMGM | 27 of 45· last season60%needs 41% to break even15 of 26 at home | Record is last season's | -14.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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