This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 12% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 12% to break even | 27%–86% | 48 points betterwon 60%, needs 12% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 12% to break even | 27%–73% | 38 points betterwon 50%, needs 12% |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 12% to break even | 33%–72% | 41 points betterwon 53%, needs 12% |
| This season | 0 of 10%needs 12% to break even | 0%–73% | 12 points shortwon 0%, needs 12% |
| Last season | 8 of 2040%needs 12% to break even | 24%–58% | 28 points betterwon 40%, needs 12% |
| Every game | 8 of 2138%needs 12% to break even | 23%–56% | 26 points betterwon 38%, needs 12% |
Tonight POR plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against SAC. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Double-double in each game against yes, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Double-double | Beat 0.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 21 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 18 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 2 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 30 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 28 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 26 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 15 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 12 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 15 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 11 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 9 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 7 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 5 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 3 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 31 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 29 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 27 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 25 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 24 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 22 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.