This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 36% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 0 of 50%needs 36% to break even | 0%–35% | 36 points shortwon 0%, needs 36% |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 1020%needs 36% to break even | 7%–46% | 16 points shortwon 20%, needs 36% |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 1527%needs 36% to break even | 13%–48% | 9 points shortwon 27%, needs 36% |
| This season | 0 of 10%needs 36% to break even | 0%–73% | 36 points shortwon 0%, needs 36% |
| Last season | 49 of 10646%needs 36% to break even | 38%–54% | 11 points betterwon 46%, needs 36% |
| Every game | 49 of 10746%needs 36% to break even | 38%–54% | 10 points betterwon 46%, needs 36% |
Tonight SA plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against HOU. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against sa -10.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin | Beat 10.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 20 | -12 | -22.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Jun 13 | -4 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 10 | -1 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 8 | 4 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 5 | -1 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 3 | -10 | -20.5 | Lost | |
| May 30 | 8 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| May 28 | 27 | +16.5 | Won | |
| May 26 | -13 | -23.5 | Lost | |
| May 24 | 21 | +10.5 | Won | |
| May 22 | -15 | -25.5 | Lost | |
| May 20 | -9 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| May 18 | 7 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| May 15 | 30 | +19.5 | Won | |
| May 12 | 29 | +18.5 | Won | |
| May 10 | -5 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| May 8 | 7 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| May 6 | 38 | +27.5 | Won | |
| May 4 | -2 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 28 | 19 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Apr 26 | 21 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Apr 24 | 12 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 21 | -3 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 19 | 13 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 12 | -10 | -20.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 10 | 19 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Apr 8 | 11 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 6 | 13 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 4 | -2 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 2 | 19 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Apr 1 | 14 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 30 | 15 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Mar 28 | 32 | +21.5 | Won | |
| Mar 25 | 25 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Mar 23 | 25 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Mar 21 | 15 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Mar 19 | 1 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 17 | 28 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Mar 16 | 4 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 14 | 13 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 12 | -5 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 10 | 9 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 8 | 25 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Mar 6 | 4 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 5 | 15 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Mar 3 | 40 | +29.5 | Won | |
| Mar 1 | -25 | -35.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 26 | 16 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Feb 25 | 3 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 23 | 11 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 21 | 17 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Feb 19 | 27 | +16.5 | Won | |
| Feb 11 | 13 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Feb 10 | 28 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Feb 7 | 13 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Feb 5 | 12 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 4 | 10 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 1 | 9 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 31 | -5 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 28 | 12 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 25 | -9 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 22 | 17 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Jan 20 | -5 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 19 | 13 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 17 | 3 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 15 | 18 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Jan 13 | -21 | -31.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 11 | -1 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 10 | 5 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 7 | 16 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Jan 6 | -1 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 3 | -5 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 2 | 10 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 31 | 2 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 29 | -12 | -22.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 27 | -13 | -23.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 25 | 15 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Dec 23 | 20 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Dec 21 | 11 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 19 | 28 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Dec 18 | 25 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Dec 16 | -11 | -21.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 13 | 2 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 10 | 13 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Dec 8 | 3 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 5 | -13 | -23.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 3 | 2 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 2 | 7 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 30 | -13 | -23.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 28 | 3 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 26 | 13 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 23 | -9 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 20 | 9 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 18 | 10 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 16 | 13 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 14 | -1 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 12 | -5 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 10 | 4 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 8 | 7 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 7 | 11 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 5 | -2 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 2 | -12 | -22.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 30 | 6 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 27 | 18 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Oct 26 | 11 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 24 | 4 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 22 | 33 | +22.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.