This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 44% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 44% to break even | 14%–73% | 4 points shortwon 40%, needs 44% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 44% to break even | 44%–87% | 26 points betterwon 70%, needs 44% |
| Last 15 games | 11 of 1573%needs 44% to break even | 52%–87% | 30 points betterwon 73%, needs 44% |
| Last season | 56 of 8864%needs 44% to break even | 55%–72% | 20 points betterwon 64%, needs 44% |
| Every game | 56 of 8864%needs 44% to break even | 55%–72% | 20 points betterwon 64%, needs 44% |
Tonight DEN plays on the road, as the underdog, against OKC. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
DEN 1H points in each game against over 57.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | DEN 1H points | Beat 57.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 30 | 50 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 27 | 60 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 25 | 54 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 23 | 39 | -18.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 20 | 64 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Apr 18 | 62 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Apr 12 | 70 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Apr 10 | 59 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 8 | 68 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Apr 6 | 58 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 4 | 65 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Apr 1 | 68 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Mar 29 | 46 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 27 | 62 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Mar 25 | 68 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Mar 24 | 67 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Mar 22 | 75 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Mar 20 | 57 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 18 | 60 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 17 | 72 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Mar 14 | 50 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 12 | 53 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 11 | 53 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 9 | 60 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 6 | 52 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 5 | 64 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Mar 2 | 66 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Mar 1 | 50 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 27 | 59 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 25 | 47 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 22 | 67 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Feb 20 | 82 | +24.5 | Won | |
| Feb 19 | 52 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 11 | 60 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Feb 9 | 59 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 7 | 59 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 4 | 53 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 3 | 50 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 1 | 55 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 30 | 59 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 29 | 64 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Jan 27 | 46 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 23 | 48 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 22 | 48 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 20 | 71 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Jan 18 | 34 | -23.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 17 | 62 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Jan 14 | 63 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Jan 13 | 60 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 11 | 62 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Jan 9 | 50 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 7 | 58 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 5 | 58 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 4 | 52 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 2 | 59 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 31 | 63 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Dec 29 | 63 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Dec 27 | 62 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Dec 25 | 57 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 23 | 56 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 22 | 69 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Dec 20 | 45 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 18 | 68 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Dec 15 | 58 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 11 | 77 | +19.5 | Won | |
| Dec 7 | 57 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 5 | 54 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 3 | 72 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Dec 1 | 68 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Nov 29 | 63 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Nov 28 | 74 | +16.5 | Won | |
| Nov 24 | 62 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Nov 22 | 65 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Nov 21 | 46 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 19 | 62 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Nov 17 | 64 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Nov 15 | 55 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 12 | 63 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Nov 11 | 60 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 8 | 56 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 7 | 66 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Nov 5 | 68 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Nov 3 | 72 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Oct 31 | 57 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 29 | 53 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 27 | 57 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 25 | 71 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Oct 23 | 70 | +12.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 51.5 1st half team totalDenver Nuggets · Today 9:40 PM ET | +189at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 35% to break even | -23.8Not beating its price | ||
| Under 53.5 1st half team totalDenver Nuggets · Today 9:40 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 21 of 88· last season24%needs 44% to break even | Record is last season's | -30.9Not beating its price | |
| Under 55.5 1st half team totalDenver Nuggets · Today 9:40 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 52% to break even | -32.6Not beating its price | ||
| Under 57.5 1st half team totalDenver Nuggets · Today 9:40 PM ET | -168at Kalshi | 32 of 88· last season36%needs 63% to break even | Record is last season's | -41.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.