This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 25% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 25% to break even | 5%–56% | 5 points shortwon 20%, needs 25% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 25% to break even | 35%–81% | 35 points betterwon 60%, needs 25% |
| Last 15 games | 11 of 1573%needs 25% to break even | 52%–87% | 48 points betterwon 73%, needs 25% |
| Last season | 56 of 8864%needs 25% to break even | 55%–72% | 39 points betterwon 64%, needs 25% |
| Every game | 56 of 8864%needs 25% to break even | 55%–72% | 39 points betterwon 64%, needs 25% |
Tonight DEN plays on the road, as the underdog, against OKC. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against den to win, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin | Beat 0 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 30 | -12 | -12 | Lost | |
| Apr 27 | 12 | +12 | Won | |
| Apr 25 | -16 | -16 | Lost | |
| Apr 23 | -17 | -17 | Lost | |
| Apr 20 | -5 | -5 | Lost | |
| Apr 18 | 11 | +11 | Won | |
| Apr 12 | 10 | +10 | Won | |
| Apr 10 | 20 | +20 | Won | |
| Apr 8 | 17 | +17 | Won | |
| Apr 6 | 5 | +5 | Won | |
| Apr 4 | 2 | +2 | Won | |
| Apr 1 | 13 | +13 | Won | |
| Mar 29 | 23 | +23 | Won | |
| Mar 27 | 6 | +6 | Won | |
| Mar 25 | 7 | +7 | Won | |
| Mar 24 | 2 | +2 | Won | |
| Mar 22 | 16 | +16 | Won | |
| Mar 20 | 6 | +6 | Won | |
| Mar 18 | -7 | -7 | Lost | |
| Mar 17 | 28 | +28 | Won | |
| Mar 14 | -2 | -2 | Lost | |
| Mar 12 | 5 | +5 | Won | |
| Mar 11 | 36 | +36 | Won | |
| Mar 9 | -3 | -3 | Lost | |
| Mar 6 | -39 | -39 | Lost | |
| Mar 5 | 7 | +7 | Won | |
| Mar 2 | 3 | +3 | Won | |
| Mar 1 | -9 | -9 | Lost | |
| Feb 27 | -6 | -6 | Lost | |
| Feb 25 | 19 | +19 | Won | |
| Feb 22 | -11 | -11 | Lost | |
| Feb 20 | 54 | +54 | Won | |
| Feb 19 | -1 | -1 | Lost | |
| Feb 11 | 6 | +6 | Won | |
| Feb 9 | -2 | -2 | Lost | |
| Feb 7 | 16 | +16 | Won | |
| Feb 4 | -7 | -7 | Lost | |
| Feb 3 | -3 | -3 | Lost | |
| Feb 1 | -10 | -10 | Lost | |
| Jan 30 | 13 | +13 | Won | |
| Jan 29 | 4 | +4 | Won | |
| Jan 27 | -2 | -2 | Lost | |
| Jan 23 | 2 | +2 | Won | |
| Jan 22 | 10 | +10 | Won | |
| Jan 20 | -8 | -8 | Lost | |
| Jan 18 | -23 | -23 | Lost | |
| Jan 17 | 6 | +6 | Won | |
| Jan 14 | 9 | +9 | Won | |
| Jan 13 | 6 | +6 | Won | |
| Jan 11 | 4 | +4 | Won | |
| Jan 9 | -23 | -23 | Lost | |
| Jan 7 | 4 | +4 | Won | |
| Jan 5 | 1 | +1 | Won | |
| Jan 4 | -12 | -12 | Lost | |
| Jan 2 | -5 | -5 | Lost | |
| Dec 31 | 3 | +3 | Won | |
| Dec 29 | -24 | -24 | Lost | |
| Dec 27 | -1 | -1 | Lost | |
| Dec 25 | 4 | +4 | Won | |
| Dec 23 | -1 | -1 | Lost | |
| Dec 22 | 23 | +23 | Won | |
| Dec 20 | -14 | -14 | Lost | |
| Dec 18 | 11 | +11 | Won | |
| Dec 15 | 3 | +3 | Won | |
| Dec 11 | 31 | +31 | Won | |
| Dec 7 | 9 | +9 | Won | |
| Dec 5 | 1 | +1 | Won | |
| Dec 3 | 15 | +15 | Won | |
| Dec 1 | -10 | -10 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | 18 | +18 | Won | |
| Nov 28 | -3 | -3 | Lost | |
| Nov 24 | 10 | +10 | Won | |
| Nov 22 | -5 | -5 | Lost | |
| Nov 21 | 3 | +3 | Won | |
| Nov 19 | 7 | +7 | Won | |
| Nov 17 | -3 | -3 | Lost | |
| Nov 15 | 11 | +11 | Won | |
| Nov 12 | 14 | +14 | Won | |
| Nov 11 | 14 | +14 | Won | |
| Nov 8 | 17 | +17 | Won | |
| Nov 7 | 25 | +25 | Won | |
| Nov 5 | 10 | +10 | Won | |
| Nov 3 | 6 | +6 | Won | |
| Oct 31 | -2 | -2 | Lost | |
| Oct 29 | 34 | +34 | Won | |
| Oct 27 | 13 | +13 | Won | |
| Oct 25 | 22 | +22 | Won | |
| Oct 23 | -6 | -6 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.