This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 63% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 63% to break even | 44%–95% | 17 points betterwon 80%, needs 63% |
| Last 10 games | 9 of 1090%needs 63% to break even | 65%–98% | 27 points betterwon 90%, needs 63% |
| Last 15 games | 14 of 1593%needs 63% to break even | 75%–98% | 31 points betterwon 93%, needs 63% |
| Last season | 66 of 8875%needs 63% to break even | 67%–82% | 12 points betterwon 75%, needs 63% |
| Every game | 66 of 8875%needs 63% to break even | 67%–82% | 12 points betterwon 75%, needs 63% |
Tonight DEN plays on the road, as the underdog, against OKC. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
2H margin in each game against den 2h +5.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 2H margin | Beat -5.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 30 | -5 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 27 | 3 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Apr 25 | -20 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 23 | 5 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Apr 20 | -5 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 18 | 11 | +16.5 | Won | |
| Apr 12 | -4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 10 | 12 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Apr 8 | 21 | +26.5 | Won | |
| Apr 6 | 19 | +24.5 | Won | |
| Apr 4 | 9 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Apr 1 | -1 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Mar 29 | 30 | +35.5 | Won | |
| Mar 27 | 6 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Mar 25 | -2 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 24 | -8 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 22 | 10 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Mar 20 | 2 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Mar 18 | -7 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 17 | -4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 14 | 9 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Mar 12 | 21 | +26.5 | Won | |
| Mar 11 | 30 | +35.5 | Won | |
| Mar 9 | 3 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Mar 6 | -26 | -20.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 5 | -3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 2 | 4 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Mar 1 | -1 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Feb 27 | -15 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 25 | 20 | +25.5 | Won | |
| Feb 22 | -2 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Feb 20 | 25 | +30.5 | Won | |
| Feb 19 | -8 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 11 | 0 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Feb 9 | -7 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 7 | 22 | +27.5 | Won | |
| Feb 4 | -5 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 3 | 16 | +21.5 | Won | |
| Feb 1 | -3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 30 | 4 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Jan 29 | -11 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 27 | 4 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Jan 23 | -4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 22 | 8 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Jan 20 | -22 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 18 | 3 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Jan 17 | 7 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Jan 14 | -8 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 13 | 11 | +16.5 | Won | |
| Jan 11 | -6 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 9 | -15 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 7 | 4 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Jan 5 | 1 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Jan 4 | -5 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 2 | -2 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Dec 31 | -6 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 29 | -24 | -18.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 27 | -15 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 25 | 2 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Dec 23 | 9 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Dec 22 | 0 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Dec 20 | -6 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 18 | -3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Dec 15 | -4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 11 | 8 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Dec 7 | 10 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Dec 5 | 20 | +25.5 | Won | |
| Dec 3 | -9 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 1 | -9 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | 15 | +20.5 | Won | |
| Nov 28 | -18 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 24 | 2 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Nov 22 | -9 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 21 | 6 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Nov 19 | 3 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Nov 17 | -4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 15 | 16 | +21.5 | Won | |
| Nov 12 | 19 | +24.5 | Won | |
| Nov 11 | 10 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Nov 8 | 8 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Nov 7 | 8 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Nov 5 | 2 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Nov 3 | -3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Oct 31 | -6 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 29 | 28 | +33.5 | Won | |
| Oct 27 | 21 | +26.5 | Won | |
| Oct 25 | 5 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Oct 23 | -15 | -9.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.