This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 38% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 38% to break even | 27%–86% | 22 points betterwon 60%, needs 38% | lost by 0.4goals |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 38% to break even | 44%–87% | 32 points betterwon 70%, needs 38% | won by 0.1goals |
| Last 15 games | 10 of 1567%needs 38% to break even | 46%–83% | 28 points betterwon 67%, needs 38% | won by 0.3goals |
| This season | 20 of 3067%needs 38% to break even | 52%–79% | 28 points betterwon 67%, needs 38% | won by 0.3goals |
| Last season | 18 of 3453%needs 38% to break even | 39%–66% | 14 points betterwon 53%, needs 38% | lost by 0.2goals |
| Every game | 38 of 6459%needs 38% to break even | 49%–69% | 21 points betterwon 59%, needs 38% | levelgoals |
Tonight NE plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against PHI. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 18 of 32 on the road.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against NE +0.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin | Beat -0.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 14 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 10 | -3 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 26 | -3 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 19 | 2 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Sep 13 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 9 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 5 | -1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 30 | 2 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Aug 23 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 19 | 3 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Aug 15 | -1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 8 | -2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 1 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 25 | 3 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jul 22 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 23 | -1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 16 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 13 | -3 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| May 9 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 2 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 25 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 22 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 18 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 11 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 4 | 3 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 21 | -2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 15 | 5 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Feb 28 | -1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 21 | -3 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Oct 18 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 4 | -3 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 27 | 2 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Sep 20 | -1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 13 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 6 | -1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 30 | -1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 23 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Aug 16 | -2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 9 | 2 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jul 25 | -2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 19 | -1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 16 | -2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 12 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 9 | -1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 5 | -1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 28 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 25 | -1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 14 | -1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 31 | 3 | +3.5 | Won | |
| May 28 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 24 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 17 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 10 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 3 | 2 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 26 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 19 | 2 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 12 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 5 | -1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 29 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 15 | -1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 8 | -2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 1 | -1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 22 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.