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MLBPlayer propHits allowed
Jacob Misiorowski over 3.5 hits allowed
Won7 of 10last 10 games · 70%
Best price-116Kalshi
Price needs53.7%wins to break even
Every game24 of 51this season and last
Trend score-17.0Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 54% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 54% to break even | 27%–86% | 6 points betterwon 60%, needs 54% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 54% to break even | 44%–87% | 16 points betterwon 70%, needs 54% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 54% to break even | 39%–78% | 6 points betterwon 60%, needs 54% |
| This season | 17 of 3253%needs 54% to break even | 39%–67% | 1 points shortwon 53%, needs 54% |
| Last season | 7 of 1937%needs 54% to break even | 21%–56% | 17 points shortwon 37%, needs 54% |
| Every game | 24 of 5147%needs 54% to break even | 36%–58% | 7 points shortwon 47%, needs 54% |
Games like tonight
Tonight MIL plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against TB. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Every book's price
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Jacob Misiorowski over 3.5 hits allowed1 book
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
Hits allowed in each game against over 3.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Hits allowed | Beat 3.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 11 |  LAD | 5 | +1.5 | Won |
| Oct 3 |  SD | 4 | +0.5 | Won |
| Sep 27 |  STL | 2 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Sep 20 |  BAL | 1 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Sep 15 |  PIT | 5 | +1.5 | Won |
| Sep 8 |  CHC | 4 | +0.5 | Won |
| Sep 2 | CHC | 5 | +1.5 | Won |
| Aug 27 |  NYM | 2 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Aug 21 |  ATL | 4 | +0.5 | Won |
| Aug 15 | LAD | 5 | +1.5 | Won |
| Aug 9 |  MIN | 4 | +0.5 | Won |
| Aug 2 |  LAA | 2 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Jul 26 |  COL | 1 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Jul 20 | NYM | 4 | +0.5 | Won |
| Jul 7 | STL | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Jul 2 |  CIN | 5 | +1.5 | Won |
| Jun 26 | CHC | 2 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Jun 19 | ATL | 5 | +1.5 | Won |
| Jun 12 |  PHI | 1 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Jun 6 | COL | 4 | +0.5 | Won |
| May 31 |  HOU | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| May 25 | STL | 2 | -1.5 | Lost |
| May 19 | CHC | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| May 13 | SD | 4 | +0.5 | Won |
| May 8 |  NYY | 2 | -1.5 | Lost |
| May 1 |  WSH | 0 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Apr 25 | PIT | 6 | +2.5 | Won |
| Apr 19 |  MIA | 4 | +0.5 | Won |
| Apr 14 |  TOR | 5 | +1.5 | Won |
| Apr 7 |  BOS | 2 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Apr 1 |  TB | 4 | +0.5 | Won |
| Mar 26 |  CHW | 2 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Oct 16 | LAD | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Oct 11 | CHC | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Oct 6 | CHC | 1 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Sep 27 | CIN | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Sep 19 | STL | 5 | +1.5 | Won |
| Sep 13 | STL | 7 | +3.5 | Won |
| Sep 7 | PIT | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Sep 1 | PHI | 6 | +2.5 | Won |
| Aug 26 |  ARI | 4 | +0.5 | Won |
| Aug 20 | CHC | 1 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Aug 15 | CIN | 4 | +0.5 | Won |
| Jul 28 | CHC | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Jul 22 |  SEA | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Jul 15 | AL | 1 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Jul 8 | LAD | 4 | +0.5 | Won |
| Jul 2 | NYM | 5 | +1.5 | Won |
| Jun 25 | PIT | 2 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Jun 20 | MIN | 1 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Jun 12 | STL | 0 | -3.5 | Lost |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The opposite bet
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 hits allowedJacob Misiorowski · Today 8:00 PM ET |  -116at Kalshi | 12 of 19· last season63%needs 54% to break even | Record is last season's | -26.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
More on Jacob Misiorowski in this game
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.