+8.5 spread: that team can lose by up to 8 and the bet still winsO 47.5 total: wins if the two teams score 48 or more combined−110 bet $110 to win $100+150 bet $100 to win $150The badge is the book with that price (tap a price to see every book's); green pays more than the bet's chances call forBet types explained →
Outlined is the best price on each side; green pays more than the chances call for. A small negative edge is normal. Tap a price to bet it. What the numbers mean
| Book | Moneyline | Spread | Total | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | MIL | TB +1.5 | MIL -1.5 | O 6 | U 6 | |
| Chance it wins | 38.2%fair odds +162 | 61.8%fair odds -162 | 59.5%fair odds -147 | 40.5%fair odds +147 | 50.2%fair odds -101 | 49.8%fair odds +101 |
| Edge at the best price | +0.2%Slightly good | +2.9%Good price | -1.2%Normal | +3.8%Great price | -2.9%Normal | +1.6%Good price |
| Bally Bet | ||||||
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On Polymarket and Kalshi a contract pays $1 if it comes true, so its price is the crowd's chance. Charts follow the home team.
Big single bets on Polymarket and Kalshi, and how much money is on this game. What bettors did, not a reason to follow them.
"To win" chances average the sportsbooks (with their cut taken out), Polymarket and Kalshi. How it works
| $334,991 | at 61¢ (-156) | Kalshi | Not shown | ||
| $197,307 | at 61¢ (-156) | Kalshi | Not shown | ||
| $44,462 | at 61¢ (-156) | Kalshi | Not shown | ||
| $98,653 | at 61¢ (-156) | Kalshi | Not shown | ||
| $20,392 | at 60¢ (-150) | Kalshi | Not shown | ||
| $12,000 | at 60¢ (-150) | Kalshi | Not shown | ||
| $180,000 | at 60¢ (-150) | Kalshi | Not shown | ||
| $1,140,010 | at 60¢ (-150) | Kalshi | Not shown | ||
| $157,791 | at 60¢ (-150) | Kalshi | Not shown | ||
| $17,740 | at 60¢ (-150) | Polymarket | See who, with Pro | ||
| $42,010 | at 60¢ (-150) | Kalshi | Not shown | ||
| $12,337 | at 60¢ (-150) | Kalshi | Not shown | ||
| $91,277 | at 60¢ (-150) | Kalshi | Not shown | ||
| $40,139 | at 60¢ (-150) | Kalshi | Not shown | ||
| $137,786 | at 60¢ (-150) | Kalshi | Not shown | ||
| $36,251 | at 60¢ (-150) | Kalshi | Not shown |
| +138 |
| -167 |
| -175 |
| +140 |
| -108 |
| -110 |
| BetMGM | +135 | -160 | -185 | +150 | -110 | -110 |
| BetOnline | +140 | -155 | -176 | +154 | -110 | -110 |
| PRXbetPARX | +138 | -167 | -175 | +140 | -108 | -110 |
| BetRivers | +140 | -167 | -175 | +140 | -108 | -110 |
| BetUS | +138 | -155 | -175 | +152 | -110 | -110 |
| Bovada | +135 | -161 | -175 | +150 | -115 | -105 |
| Caesars | +136 | -159 | -182 | +153 | -107 | -110 |
| DraftKings | +133 | -161 | -181 | +149 | -110 | -110 |
| Fanatics | +135 | -165 | -185 | +150 | -110 | -110 |
| LVGLowVig | +140 | -155 | -176 | +155 | -107 | -107 |
| MyBookie | +132 | -162 | -177 | +156 | -111 | -110 |
| PINPinnacle | +140 | -155 | -173 | +152 | -113 | -101 |
| FanDuel | +134 | -158 | -178 | +146 | – | – |
| FLFliff | +135 | -170 | -185 | +140 | – | – |
| Hard Rock | +135 | -160 | -175 | +145 | – | – |
| Kalshi | +152 | -183 | -154 | +129 | – | – |
| NVNovig | +147 | -150 | -163 | +153 | – | – |
| Polymarket | +162 | -187 | -151 | +131 | – | – |
| PXProphetX | +142 | -150 | – | – | -109 | +104 |
| RBReBet | +125 | -170 | – | – | -115 | -115 |
| tStheScore Bet | +135 | -155 | -180 | +150 | – | – |
Vig at the best pricesspread -0.8% · total 0.7% · to win -1.9%Cheapest books →
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Bets in this game that have kept winning, more often than their price needs. A trend ignores the opponent, and some are luck.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB to win moneylineTampa Bay Rays | 105 of 171· this season61%needs 39% to break even | Record is this season's | 6.1Good | ||
| Over 2.5 team totalTampa Bay Rays | -107at Kalshi | 125 of 171· this season73%needs to break even | |||
| MIL to win moneylineMilwaukee Brewers |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB +0.5 first 5 innings spreadTampa Bay Rays |
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 RBIsJackson Chourio |
| Record is this season's |
| 4.2Good |
| 13 of 15· last 15 games87%needs 60% to break even |
| 1.7Slight |
| 112 of 171· this season65%needs 49% to break even |
| Record is this season's |
| 4.8Good |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +189at Kalshi |
| 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 35% to break even |
| -0.6Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 first 5 innings totalMilwaukee Brewers | -175at Kalshi | 135 of 170· this season79%needs 64% to break even | Record is this season's | -0.8Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 team totalMilwaukee Brewers | -218at Kalshi | 14 of 15· last 15 games93%needs 69% to break even | -3.0Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 total basesYandy Díaz · TB | +146at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 41% to break even | -3.4Not beating its price |
| Over 7.5 game total, MIL gamesMilwaukee Brewers | +190at FanDuel | 91 of 171· last season53%needs 34% to break even | Record is last season's | -4.0Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIsYandy Díaz · TB | +101at Kalshi | 86 of 150· last season57%needs 50% to break even | Record is last season's | -4.6Not beating its price |
| Over 7 game total, TB gamesTampa Bay Rays | +150at BetMGM | 86 of 148· this season58%needs 40% to break even | Record is this season's | -4.8Not beating its price |
| Over 13.5 outs recordedNick Martinez · TB | -126at Kalshi | 29 of 34· this season85%needs 56% to break even | Record is this season's | -5.4Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 hits + runs + RBIsTaylor Walls · TB | -103at Kalshi | 64 of 93· last season69%needs 51% to break even | Record is last season's | -6.1Not beating its price |
| Under 4.5 hits allowedDrew Rasmussen · TB | -137at Kalshi | 25 of 32· last season78%needs 58% to break even | Record is last season's | -6.3Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 total basesJunior Caminero · TB | +173at Kalshi | 81 of 172· this season47%needs 37% to break even | Record is this season's | -6.8Not beating its price |
| Under 6.5 strikeouts (pitcher)Jacob Misiorowski · MIL | +101at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 50% to break even | -7.3Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIsJonathan Aranda · TB | +166at Kalshi | 60 of 107· last season56%needs 38% to break even | Record is last season's | -7.6Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 hitsYandy Díaz · TB | -199at Kalshi | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 67% to break even | -8.4Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 hitsJunior Caminero · TB | -161at Kalshi | 126 of 172· this season73%needs 62% to break even | Record is this season's | -8.8Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIsJake Bauers · MIL | +114at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 47% to break even | -10.1Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 hitsJake Bauers · MIL | -142at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 59% to break even | -10.1Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIsJackson Chourio · MIL | -116at Kalshi | 83 of 135· this season61%needs 54% to break even | Record is this season's | -10.2Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 hitsTaylor Walls · TB | +124at Kalshi | 70 of 130· this season54%needs 45% to break even | Record is this season's | -10.8Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 RBIsWilliam Contreras · MIL | +198at Kalshi | 57 of 156· this season37%needs 34% to break even | Record is this season's | -11.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
Who's hurt, the weather, rest and recent form. Injuries can change up to game time.
| Shane McClanahanstarting pitcher | SP | Out | Left Forearm · back ~Feb 1 |
| Gavin Lux | LF | 60-Day-IL | Left Shoulder · back ~Oct 23 |
| Jacob Melton | LF | 60-Day-IL | Right Hamstring · back ~Feb 1 |
| Edwin Uceta | RP | 60-Day-IL | Right Shoulder · back ~Feb 1 |
| Jonathan Heasley | RP | 60-Day-IL | Right Elbow · back ~Feb 1 |
| Quinn Priesterstarting pitcher | SP | 60-Day-IL | Right Shoulder · back ~Feb 1 |
| Brandon Woodruff | SP | 60-Day-IL | Right Shoulder · back ~Oct 23 |
| Grant Anderson | RP | 15-Day-IL | Right Biceps · back ~Oct 23 |
| Angel Zerpa | RP | 60-Day-IL | Left Elbow |
| Brian Fitzpatrick | RP | 60-Day-IL | Left Elbow · back ~Aug 1 |
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Polymarket and Kalshi sell the spread and total at every number, not just the one most books use. Each row shows the chance that bet wins, from their prices, and the best price on each side at any book, sportsbooks' alternate lines and fees included.
| Bet | Chance | Best price | Other side, best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIL +3.5 | 90% chance | -950 | TB -3.5+756 |
| MIL +2.5 | 84% chance | -520 | TB -2.5+465 |
| MIL +1.5 | 75% chance | -300 | TB -1.5+280 |
| MIL -1.5Most books' number | 42% chance | +156 | TB +1.5-151$2,800 available at this price |
| MIL -2.5 | 29% chance | +250 | TB +2.5-270 |
| MIL -3.5 | 20% chance | +390 | TB +3.5-430 |
| MIL -4.5 | 13% chance | +585 | TB +4.5-772 |
| -132 |
| Under 5.5+137 |
| Over 6.5 | 51% chance | +112 | Under 6.5-101 |
| Over 7.5 | 37% chance | +190 | Under 7.5-187 |
| Over 8.5 | 29% chance | +255 | Under 8.5-276 |
| Over 9.5 | 21% chance | +420 | Under 9.5-430 |
| Over 10.5 | 17% chance | +560 | Under 10.5-564 |