This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 49% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 49% to break even | 44%–95% | 31 points betterwon 80%, needs 49% |
| Last 10 games | 8 of 1080%needs 49% to break even | 54%–93% | 31 points betterwon 80%, needs 49% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 49% to break even | 39%–78% | 11 points betterwon 60%, needs 49% |
| This season | 10 of 3231%needs 49% to break even | 20%–46% | 18 points shortwon 31%, needs 49% |
| Last season | 12 of 1963%needs 49% to break even | 44%–79% | 14 points betterwon 63%, needs 49% |
Tonight MIL plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against TB. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Strikeouts (pitcher) in each game against under 6.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6.5 strikeouts (pitcher)Jacob Misiorowski |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 16.5 outs recordedJacob Misiorowski |
| Every game | 22 of 5143%needs 49% to break even | 32%–55% | 6 points shortwon 43%, needs 49% |
| Date | Opponent | Strikeouts (pitcher) | Beat 6.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 11 | 5 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 3 | 6 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 27 | 5 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 20 | 4 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Sep 15 | 7 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 8 | 9 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 2 | 5 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Aug 27 | 6 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 21 | 6 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 15 | 6 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 9 | 9 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 2 | 10 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 26 | 12 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 20 | 6 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 7 | 11 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 2 | 10 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 26 | 8 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 19 | 7 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 12 | 15 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 6 | 8 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 31 | 8 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 25 | 12 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| May 19 | 8 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 13 | 10 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| May 8 | 11 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| May 1 | 8 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 25 | 9 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 19 | 9 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 14 | 5 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 7 | 10 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 1 | 7 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 26 | 11 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Oct 16 | 9 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 11 | 3 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Oct 6 | 4 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Sep 27 | 3 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Sep 19 | 3 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Sep 13 | 4 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Sep 7 | 8 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 1 | 4 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Aug 26 | 10 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 20 | 5 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Aug 15 | 3 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jul 28 | 7 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 22 | 7 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 15 | AL | 0 | +6.5 | Won |
| Jul 8 | 12 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 2 | 2 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Jun 25 | 8 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 20 | 6 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 12 | 5 | +1.5 | Won | |
| -126at Kalshi |
| 22 of 32· this season69%needs 56% to break even |
| Record is this season's |
| -32.2Not beating its price |
| Over 7.5 strikeouts (pitcher)Jacob Misiorowski · Tomorrow 8:00 PM ET | +146at Kalshi | 19 of 32· this season59%needs 41% to break even | Record is this season's | -24.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -137at Kalshi |
| 16 of 19· last season84%needs 58% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -11.9Not beating its price |
| Over 3.5 hits allowedJacob Misiorowski · Tomorrow 8:00 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even | -16.2Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 earned runsJacob Misiorowski · Tomorrow 8:00 PM ET | +166at Kalshi | 9 of 19· last season47%needs 38% to break even | Record is last season's | -17.1Not beating its price |
| Under 3.5 hits allowedJacob Misiorowski · Tomorrow 8:00 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 12 of 19· last season63%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -25.6Not beating its price |
| Over 16.5 outs recordedJacob Misiorowski · Tomorrow 8:00 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 18 of 32· this season56%needs 48% to break even | Record is this season's | -25.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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