This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 63% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 63% to break even | 44%–95% | 17 points betterwon 80%, needs 63% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 63% to break even | 44%–87% | 7 points betterwon 70%, needs 63% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 63% to break even | 39%–78% | 3 points shortwon 60%, needs 63% |
| This season | 7 of 978%needs 63% to break even | 50%–92% | 15 points betterwon 78%, needs 63% |
| Last season | 55 of 8962%needs 63% to break even | 53%–70% | 1 points shortwon 62%, needs 63% |
| Every game | 62 of 9863%needs 63% to break even | 55%–71% | 1 points betterwon 63%, needs 63% |
Tonight TB plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against COL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
TB goals in each game against over 2.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 team totalTampa Bay Lightning · Today 9:00 PM ET |
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB to win moneylineTampa Bay Lightning · Today 9:00 PM ET |
| Date | Opponent | TB goals | Beat 2.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 20 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Oct 17 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 15 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 13 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 10 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Oct 8 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 5 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 3 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 1 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 3 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 1 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 29 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 26 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 24 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 21 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 19 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 15 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 13 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 11 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 9 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 7 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 6 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 4 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 2 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 31 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 29 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 28 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 26 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 24 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 22 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 21 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 19 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 17 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 14 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 12 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 10 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 8 | 7 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Mar 7 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 5 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 3 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 28 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 26 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 25 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 5 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Feb 3 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 1 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jan 29 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 26 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 24 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 23 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 20 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 18 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 16 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 13 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 12 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 10 | 7 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Jan 6 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 3 | 7 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Jan 1 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Dec 31 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 28 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Dec 27 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 22 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 20 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Dec 18 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 15 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 13 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 11 | 8 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Dec 9 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Dec 8 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 6 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 4 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 2 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 28 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Nov 26 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 24 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 22 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 20 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 18 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 16 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 15 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 12 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 8 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 6 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Nov 4 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 2 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 30 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 28 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Oct 26 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 25 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 23 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 18 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 17 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 14 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 13 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 11 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 9 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| 34 of 89· last season38%needs 44% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -25.7Not beating its price |
| Under 3.5 team totalTampa Bay Lightning · Today 9:00 PM ET | -191at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 66% to break even | -33.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| 53 of 89· last season60%needs 48% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -1.1Not beating its price |
| Under 6.5 game total, TB gamesTampa Bay Lightning · Today 9:00 PM ET | -119at Polymarket | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 54% to break even | -10.4Not beating its price |
| Under 5.5 game total, TB gamesTampa Bay Lightning · Today 9:00 PM ET | +134at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 43% to break even | -13.1Not beating its price |
| TB -0.5 1st period spreadTampa Bay Lightning · Today 9:00 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 30 of 89· last season34%needs 36% to break even | Record is last season's | -17.5Not beating its price |
| Over 5.5 game total, TB gamesTampa Bay Lightning · Today 9:00 PM ET | -158at Polymarket | 51 of 89· last season57%needs 61% to break even | Record is last season's | -28.0Not beating its price |
| TB +0.5 1st period spreadTampa Bay Lightning · Today 9:00 PM ET | -251at Kalshi | 57 of 89· last season64%needs 72% to break even | Record is last season's | -28.7Not beating its price |
| Over 6.5 game total, TB gamesTampa Bay Lightning · Today 9:00 PM ET | +103at Polymarket | 39 of 89· last season44%needs 49% to break even | Record is last season's | -29.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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