This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 36% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 36% to break even | 5%–56% | 16 points shortwon 20%, needs 36% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 36% to break even | 13%–56% | 6 points shortwon 30%, needs 36% |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 36% to break even | 22%–61% | 4 points betterwon 40%, needs 36% |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 36% to break even | 12%–65% | 2 points shortwon 33%, needs 36% |
| Last season | 9 of 1753%needs 36% to break even | 34%–71% | 17 points betterwon 53%, needs 36% |
| Every game | 11 of 2348%needs 36% to break even | 32%–64% | 12 points betterwon 48%, needs 36% |
Tonight IND plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against MIN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
3Q margin in each game against ind 3q -0.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 3Q margin | Beat 0.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 18 | -6 | -6.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 1st half team totalIndianapolis Colts · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |
| Oct 11 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Oct 4 | 3 | +2.5 | Won |
| Sep 27 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Sep 20 | -7 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Sep 13 | 3 | +2.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 4 | 7 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Dec 28 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Dec 22 | -7 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Dec 14 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Dec 7 | 3 | +2.5 | Won |
| Nov 30 | 4 | +3.5 | Won |
| Nov 23 | 6 | +5.5 | Won |
| Nov 9 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Nov 2 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Oct 26 | 14 | +13.5 | Won |
| Oct 19 | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Oct 12 | -11 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Oct 5 | 20 | +19.5 | Won |
| Sep 28 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Sep 21 | 7 | +6.5 | Won |
| Sep 14 | -4 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Sep 7 | 3 | +2.5 | Won |
| 10 of 10· last 10 games100%needs 48% to break even |
| 18.3Very strong |
| Over 7.5 1st half team totalIndianapolis Colts · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 10 of 10· last 10 games100%needs 52% to break even | 15.1Very strong |
| Over 8.5 1st half team totalIndianapolis Colts · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 10 of 10· last 10 games100%needs 53% to break even | 14.2Strong |
| Over 14.5 team totalIndianapolis Colts · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -183at Kalshi | 17 of 17· last season100%needs 65% to break even | Record is last season's | 10.8Strong |
| Over 17.5 team totalIndianapolis Colts · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +101at Kalshi | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 50% to break even | Record is this season's | 10.0Strong |
| Over 6.5 1st half team totalIndianapolis Colts · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -183at Kalshi | 10 of 10· last 10 games100%needs 65% to break even | 7.3Good |
| Over 42.5 game total, IND gamesIndianapolis Colts · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +112at Polymarket | 13 of 17· last season76%needs 47% to break even | Record is last season's | 2.3Slight |
| Over 21.5 team totalIndianapolis Colts · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +198at Kalshi | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 34% to break even | Record is last season's | -0.1Not beating its price |
| Over 41.5 game total, IND gamesIndianapolis Colts · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | NV-102at Novig | 13 of 17· last season76%needs 50% to break even | Record is last season's | -0.5Not beating its price |
| Over 45.5 game total, IND gamesIndianapolis Colts · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +152at Kalshi | 12 of 17· last season71%needs 40% to break even | Record is last season's | -0.9Not beating its price |
| Over 39.5 game total, IND gamesIndianapolis Colts · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -148at Kalshi | 15 of 17· last season88%needs 60% to break even | Record is last season's | -2.5Not beating its price |
| Over 20.5 team totalIndianapolis Colts · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +173at Kalshi | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 37% to break even | Record is last season's | -2.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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