This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 40% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 40% to break even | 27%–86% | 20 points betterwon 60%, needs 40% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 40% to break even | 35%–81% | 20 points betterwon 60%, needs 40% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 40% to break even | 39%–78% | 20 points betterwon 60%, needs 40% |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 40% to break even | 35%–88% | 27 points betterwon 67%, needs 40% |
| Last season | 12 of 1771%needs 40% to break even | 51%–85% | 31 points betterwon 71%, needs 40% |
| Every game | 16 of 2370%needs 40% to break even | 52%–83% | 30 points betterwon 70%, needs 40% |
Tonight IND plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against MIN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Total points in each game against over 45.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 36.5 game total, IND gamesIndianapolis Colts · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 1st half team totalIndianapolis Colts · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |
| 46 |
| +0.5 |
| Won |
| Oct 11 | 56 | +10.5 | Won |
| Oct 4 | 43 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Sep 27 | 36 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Sep 20 | 63 | +17.5 | Won |
| Sep 13 | 64 | +18.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 4 | 68 | +22.5 | Won | |
| Dec 28 | 40 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Dec 22 | 75 | +29.5 | Won |
| Dec 14 | 34 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Dec 7 | 55 | +9.5 | Won |
| Nov 30 | 36 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Nov 23 | 43 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Nov 9 | 56 | +10.5 | Won |
| Nov 2 | 47 | +1.5 | Won |
| Oct 26 | 52 | +6.5 | Won |
| Oct 19 | 62 | +16.5 | Won |
| Oct 12 | 58 | +12.5 | Won |
| Oct 5 | 46 | +0.5 | Won |
| Sep 28 | 47 | +1.5 | Won |
| Sep 21 | 61 | +15.5 | Won |
| Sep 14 | 57 | +11.5 | Won |
| Sep 7 | 41 | -4.5 | Lost |
| 3 of 15· last 15 games20%needs 36% to break even |
| -24.7Not beating its price |
| Under 38.5 game total, IND gamesIndianapolis Colts · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +131at Polymarket | 3 of 15· last 15 games20%needs 43% to break even | -31.1Not beating its price |
| Under 39.5 game total, IND gamesIndianapolis Colts · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +124at Kalshi | 3 of 15· last 15 games20%needs 45% to break even | -32.2Not beating its price |
| Under 40.5 game total, IND gamesIndianapolis Colts · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +107at Polymarket | 3 of 10· last 10 games30%needs 48% to break even | -32.8Not beating its price |
| Under 41.5 game total, IND gamesIndianapolis Colts · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -107at Caesars | 3 of 10· last 10 games30%needs 52% to break even | -34.9Not beating its price |
| Under 42.5 game total, IND gamesIndianapolis Colts · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -126at Kalshi | 3 of 10· last 10 games30%needs 56% to break even | -38.2Not beating its price |
| Under 43.5 game total, IND gamesIndianapolis Colts · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -142at Kalshi | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 59% to break even | -34.6Not beating its price |
| Under 44.5 game total, IND gamesIndianapolis Colts · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -158at Polymarket | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 61% to break even | -36.7Not beating its price |
| Under 45.5 game total, IND gamesIndianapolis Colts · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -183at Kalshi | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 65% to break even | -39.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| 10 of 10· last 10 games100%needs 48% to break even |
| 18.3Very strong |
| Over 7.5 1st half team totalIndianapolis Colts · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 10 of 10· last 10 games100%needs 52% to break even | 15.1Very strong |
| Over 8.5 1st half team totalIndianapolis Colts · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 10 of 10· last 10 games100%needs 53% to break even | 14.2Strong |
| Over 14.5 team totalIndianapolis Colts · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -183at Kalshi | 17 of 17· last season100%needs 65% to break even | Record is last season's | 10.8Strong |
| Over 17.5 team totalIndianapolis Colts · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +101at Kalshi | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 50% to break even | Record is this season's | 10.0Strong |
| Over 6.5 1st half team totalIndianapolis Colts · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -183at Kalshi | 10 of 10· last 10 games100%needs 65% to break even | 7.3Good |
| Over 21.5 team totalIndianapolis Colts · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +198at Kalshi | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 34% to break even | Record is last season's | -0.1Not beating its price |
| Over 20.5 team totalIndianapolis Colts · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +173at Kalshi | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 37% to break even | Record is last season's | -2.6Not beating its price |
| IND +6.5 1st half spreadIndianapolis Colts · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -158at Polymarket | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 61% to break even | -3.7Not beating its price |
| IND +1.5 1st half spreadIndianapolis Colts · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +131at Polymarket | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 43% to break even | Record is last season's | -4.0Not beating its price |
| IND +2.5 1st half spreadIndianapolis Colts · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +131at Polymarket | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 43% to break even | Record is last season's | -4.0Not beating its price |
| IND +4.5 1st half spreadIndianapolis Colts · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -139at Polymarket | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 58% to break even | -5.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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