This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 43% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 43% to break even | 14%–73% | 3 points shortwon 40%, needs 43% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 43% to break even | 27%–73% | 7 points betterwon 50%, needs 43% |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 43% to break even | 22%–61% | 3 points shortwon 40%, needs 43% |
| This season | 2 of 540%needs 43% to break even | 14%–73% | 3 points shortwon 40%, needs 43% |
| Last season | 8 of 1747%needs 43% to break even | 29%–66% | 4 points betterwon 47%, needs 43% |
| Every game | 10 of 2245%needs 43% to break even | 29%–62% | 3 points betterwon 45%, needs 43% |
Tonight MIN plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against IND. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
2H margin in each game against min 2h -4.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 2H margin | Beat 4.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 11 | 11 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Oct 4 | -4 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 27 | 0 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 20 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 13 | 26 | +21.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 4 | 0 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 25 | 13 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Dec 21 | 0 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 14 | 8 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Dec 7 | 17 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Nov 30 | -13 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 23 | -13 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 16 | 5 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 9 | -9 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 2 | 0 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 23 | -9 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 19 | 2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 5 | 7 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Sep 28 | 5 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 21 | 7 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Sep 14 | -13 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 8 | 7 | +2.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.