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NFLGame line4th quarter spread
MIN 4Q -2.5 (4th quarter spread)
Won5 of 5last 5 games · 100%
Best price-103Kalshi
Price needs50.7%wins to break even
Every game12 of 22this season and last
Trend score-6.3Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 51% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 5 of 5100%needs 51% to break even | 65%–100% | 49 points betterwon 100%, needs 51% |
| Last 10 games | 8 of 1080%needs 51% to break even | 54%–93% | 29 points betterwon 80%, needs 51% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 51% to break even | 39%–78% | 9 points betterwon 60%, needs 51% |
| This season | 5 of 5100%needs 51% to break even | 65%–100% | 49 points betterwon 100%, needs 51% |
| Last season | 7 of 1741%needs 51% to break even | 24%–61% | 10 points shortwon 41%, needs 51% |
| Every game | 12 of 2255%needs 51% to break even | 38%–71% | 4 points betterwon 55%, needs 51% |
Games like tonight
Tonight MIN plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against IND. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Every book's price
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MIN 4Q -2.5 (4th quarter spread)1 book
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
4Q margin in each game against min 4q -2.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 4Q margin | Beat 2.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 11 |  NO | 10 | +7.5 | Won |
| Oct 4 |  MIA | 3 | +0.5 | Won |
| Sep 27 |  TB | 3 | +0.5 | Won |
| Sep 20 |  CHI | 3 | +0.5 | Won |
| Sep 13 |  GB | 22 | +19.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 4 | GB | 0 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Dec 25 |  DET | 7 | +4.5 | Won |
| Dec 21 |  NYG | 0 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Dec 14 |  DAL | 7 | +4.5 | Won |
| Dec 7 |  WSH | 7 | +4.5 | Won |
| Nov 30 |  SEA | -7 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Nov 23 | GB | -6 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Nov 16 | CHI | 11 | +8.5 | Won |
| Nov 9 |  BAL | -2 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Nov 2 | DET | -4 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Oct 23 |  LAC | -13 | -15.5 | Lost |
| Oct 19 |  PHI | -1 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Oct 5 |  CLE | 7 | +4.5 | Won |
| Sep 28 |  PIT | 12 | +9.5 | Won |
| Sep 21 |  CIN | -7 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Sep 14 |  ATL | -10 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Sep 8 | CHI | 14 | +11.5 | Won |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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More on Minnesota Vikings in this game
This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.