This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 36% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 36% to break even | 14%–73% | 4 points betterwon 40%, needs 36% | 2.6receptions |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 1020%needs 36% to break even | 7%–46% | 16 points shortwon 20%, needs 36% | 1.3receptions |
| Last 15 games | 2 of 1217%needs 36% to break even | 6%–40% | 19 points shortwon 17%, needs 36% | 1.1receptions |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 36% to break even | 12%–65% | 2 points shortwon 33%, needs 36% | 2.2receptions |
| Last season | 0 of 60%needs 36% to break even | 0%–31% | 36 points shortwon 0%, needs 36% | 0receptions |
| Every game | 2 of 1217%needs 36% to break even | 6%–40% | 19 points shortwon 17%, needs 36% | 1.1receptions |
Tonight IND plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against MIN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 2 of 6 on the road. Tonight: MIN allows 10.2 receptions a game to wide receivers, the 9th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 11.5): a tough matchup for this bet. How MIN defends wide receivers
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Receptions in each game against over 2.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.5 receptionsLaquon Treadwell · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +138at DraftKings | 6 of 6· last season100%needs 42% to break even3 of 6 on the road | Record is last season's | -4.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 9.5 receiving yardsLaquon Treadwell · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +189at Kalshi | 6 of 6· last season100%needs 35% to break even3 of 6 on the road | Record is last season's | -2.9Not beating its price | |
| Under 21.5 receiving yardsLaquon Treadwell · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -114at FanDuel | 6 of 6· last season100%needs 53% to break even3 of 6 on the road | Record is last season's | -7.3Not beating its price | |
| Scores a TDLaquon Treadwell · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +750at DraftKings | 0 of 5· last 5 games0%needs 12% to break even0 of 6 on the road | -8.3Not beating its price | ||
| Under 14.5 receiving yardsLaquon Treadwell · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +134at Kalshi | 6 of 6· last season100%needs 43% to break even3 of 6 on the road | Record is last season's | -8.6Not beating its price | |
| Under 20.5 receiving yardsLaquon Treadwell · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -113at DraftKings | 6 of 6· last season100%needs 53% to break even3 of 6 on the road | Record is last season's | -12.1Not beating its price | |
| Under 24.5 receiving yardsLaquon Treadwell · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -161at Kalshi | 6 of 6· last season100%needs 62% to break even3 of 6 on the road | Record is last season's | -13.3Not beating its price | |
| Under 19.5 receiving yardsLaquon Treadwell · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -103at Kalshi | 6 of 6· last season100%needs 51% to break even3 of 6 on the road | Record is last season's | -14.3Not beating its price | |
| Under 18.5 receiving yardsLaquon Treadwell · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -115at BetMGM | 6 of 6· last season100%needs 53% to break even3 of 6 on the road | Record is last season's | -16.2Not beating its price | |
| Over 18.5 receiving yardsLaquon Treadwell · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -115at BetMGM | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 53% to break even3 of 6 on the road | -17.0Not beating its price | ||
| Over 29.5 receiving yardsLaquon Treadwell · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +166at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 38% to break even3 of 6 on the road | -17.3Not beating its price | ||
| Over 19.5 receiving yardsLaquon Treadwell · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -120at DraftKings | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 55% to break even3 of 6 on the road | -17.7Not beating its price | ||
| Over 30.5 receiving yardsLaquon Treadwell · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +139at BetOnline | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 42% to break even3 of 6 on the road | -20.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.