This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 37% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 37% to break even | 14%–73% | 3 points betterwon 40%, needs 37% | 0.8receptions |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 1020%needs 37% to break even | 7%–46% | 17 points shortwon 20%, needs 37% | 1.9receptions |
| Last 15 games | 2 of 1513%needs 37% to break even | 5%–33% | 24 points shortwon 13%, needs 37% | 2.8receptions |
| This season | 2 of 450%needs 37% to break even | 18%–82% | 13 points betterwon 50%, needs 37% | 0.5receptions |
| Last season |
Tonight MIN plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against IND. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 1 of 9 at home. Tonight: IND allows 10.5 receptions a game to wide receivers, the 11th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 11.5): an easy matchup for this bet. How IND defends wide receivers
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receptions in each game against under 0.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receptions | Beat 0.5 by | Bet |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 0%–14% |
| 37 points shortwon 0%, needs 37% |
| 3.4receptions |
| Every game | 2 of 2110%needs 37% to break even | 3%–25% | 28 points shortwon 10%, needs 37% | 2.9receptions |
| This season | ||||
| Wk 5 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 20 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 19 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 18 | 4 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 5 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | 3 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 4 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 12 | 5 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 11 | 4 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 10 | 6 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 9 | 4 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | 4 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | 4 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 6 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 5 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| -230at FanDuel |
| 17 of 17· last season100%needs 70% to break even8 of 9 at home |
| Record is last season's |
| -13.1Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 receptionsJauan Jennings · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +198at Kalshi | 15 of 17· last season88%needs 34% to break even7 of 9 at home | Record is last season's | -0.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +119at Kalshi |
| 16 of 17· last season94%needs 46% to break even7 of 9 at home |
| Record is last season's |
| -6.6Not beating its price |
| Over 7.5 receiving yardsJauan Jennings · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 16 of 17· last season94%needs 53% to break even8 of 9 at home | Record is last season's | -8.0Not beating its price |
| Under 9.5 receiving yardsJauan Jennings · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -148at Kalshi | 4 of 4· this season100%needs 60% to break even2 of 9 at home | Record is this season's | -27.9Not beating its price |
| Under 7.5 receiving yardsJauan Jennings · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 3 of 4· this season75%needs 53% to break even1 of 9 at home | Record is this season's | -30.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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