This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 46% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 46% to break even | 5%–56% | 26 points shortwon 20%, needs 46% | 6.4receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 46% to break even | 35%–81% | 14 points betterwon 60%, needs 46% | 26.2receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 11 of 1573%needs 46% to break even | 52%–87% | 28 points betterwon 73%, needs 46% | 33.9receiving yards |
| This season | 0 of 40%needs 46% to break even | 0%–40% | 46 points shortwon 0%, needs 46% | 2.3receiving yards |
| Last season | 16 of 1794%needs 46% to break even | 77%–99% | 48 points betterwon 94%, needs 46% | 41.8receiving yards |
| Every game | 16 of 2176%needs 46% to break even | 59%–88% | 31 points betterwon 76%, needs 46% | 34.3receiving yards |
Tonight MIN plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against IND. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 7 of 9 at home. Tonight: IND allows 148.8 receiving yards a game to wide receivers, the 16th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 150.3). How IND defends wide receivers
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against over 9.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 9.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 5 | 0 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 8 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 1 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 0 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 20 | 23 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Wk 19 | 45 | +35.5 | Won | |
| Wk 18 | 35 | +25.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 42 | +32.5 | Won | |
| Wk 16 | 71 | +61.5 | Won | |
| Wk 15 | 37 | +27.5 | Won | |
| Wk 13 | 39 | +29.5 | Won | |
| Wk 12 | 41 | +31.5 | Won | |
| Wk 11 | 54 | +44.5 | Won | |
| Wk 10 | 71 | +61.5 | Won | |
| Wk 9 | 41 | +31.5 | Won | |
| Wk 8 | 45 | +35.5 | Won | |
| Wk 7 | 31 | +21.5 | Won | |
| Wk 6 | 7 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 24 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 89 | +79.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 16 | +6.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 7.5 receiving yardsJauan Jennings · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 3 of 4· this season75%needs 53% to break even1 of 9 at home | Record is this season's | -30.3Not beating its price | |
| Under 9.5 receiving yardsJauan Jennings · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -148at Kalshi | 4 of 4· this season100%needs 60% to break even2 of 9 at home | Record is this season's | -27.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 receptionsJauan Jennings · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +198at Kalshi | 15 of 17· last season88%needs 34% to break even7 of 9 at home | Record is last season's | -0.7Not beating its price | |
| Over 0.5 receptionsJauan Jennings · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -230at FanDuel | 17 of 17· last season100%needs 70% to break even8 of 9 at home | Record is last season's | -13.1Not beating its price | |
| Under 0.5 receptionsJauan Jennings · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +168at FanDuel | 2 of 4· this season50%needs 37% to break even1 of 9 at home | Record is this season's | -23.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.