This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 62% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 62% to break even | 44%–95% | 18 points betterwon 80%, needs 62% | 25.4receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 8 of 1080%needs 62% to break even | 54%–93% | 18 points betterwon 80%, needs 62% | 24.7receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 11 of 1573%needs 62% to break even | 52%–87% | 12 points betterwon 73%, needs 62% | 26.9receiving yards |
| This season | 2 of 367%needs 62% to break even | 25%–92% | 5 points betterwon 67%, needs 62% | 18.3receiving yards |
Tonight NYJ plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against MIA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 6 of 9 at home. Tonight: MIA allows 76.2 receiving yards a game to tight ends, the 4th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 54.2): an easy matchup for this bet. How MIA defends tight ends
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against over 14.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 14.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 33 | +18.5 | ||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| Last season |
| 10 of 1377%needs 62% to break even |
| 54%–90% |
| 15 points betterwon 77%, needs 62% |
| 28.4receiving yards |
| Every game | 12 of 1675%needs 62% to break even | 55%–88% | 13 points betterwon 75%, needs 62% | 26.5receiving yards |
| Won |
| Wk 5 | 24 | +9.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | -2 | -16.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 14 | 51 | +36.5 | Won | |
| Wk 13 | 21 | +6.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | 21 | +6.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | 30 | +15.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 | 4 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Wk 8 | 34 | +19.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 31 | +16.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 | 2 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 | 67 | +52.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 65 | +50.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 18 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 5 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 20 | +5.5 | Won |
| +119at Kalshi |
| 4 of 15· last 15 games27%needs 46% to break even3 of 9 at home |
| -28.3Not beating its price |
| Under 19.5 receiving yardsMason Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -126at Kalshi | 5 of 15· last 15 games33%needs 56% to break even3 of 9 at home | -34.3Not beating its price |
| Under 20.5 receiving yardsMason Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -110at BetMGM | 5 of 13· last season38%needs 52% to break even4 of 9 at home | Record is last season's | -30.7Not beating its price |
| Under 21.5 receiving yardsMason Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at BetRivers | 7 of 13· last season54%needs 53% to break even5 of 9 at home | Record is last season's | -24.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +189at Kalshi |
| 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 35% to break even2 of 9 at home |
| -11.4Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDMason Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +490at Kalshi | 1 of 10· last 10 games10%needs 17% to break even0 of 9 at home | -12.0Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 receptionsMason Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 55% to break even4 of 9 at home | -13.6Not beating its price |
| Under 2.5 receptionsMason Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +118at FanDuel | 5 of 13· last season38%needs 46% to break even5 of 9 at home | Record is last season's | -23.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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