This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 47% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 47% to break even | 5%–56% | 27 points shortwon 20%, needs 47% | 25.4receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 1020%needs 47% to break even | 7%–46% | 27 points shortwon 20%, needs 47% | 24.7receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 1527%needs 47% to break even | 13%–48% | 20 points shortwon 27%, needs 47% | 26.9receiving yards |
| This season | 1 of 333%needs 47% to break even | 8%–75% | 13 points shortwon 33%, needs 47% | 18.3receiving yards |
| Last season | 3 of 13 |
Tonight NYJ plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against MIA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 3 of 9 at home. Tonight: MIA allows 76.2 receiving yards a game to tight ends, the 4th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 54.2): a tough matchup for this bet. How MIA defends tight ends
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against under 14.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 10%–46% |
| 24 points shortwon 23%, needs 47% |
| 28.4receiving yards |
| Every game | 4 of 1625%needs 47% to break even | 12%–45% | 22 points shortwon 25%, needs 47% | 26.5receiving yards |
| 33 |
| -18.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 5 | 24 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | -2 | +16.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 14 | 51 | -36.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 21 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | 21 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 30 | -15.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 | 4 | +10.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | 34 | -19.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 | 31 | -16.5 | Lost |
| Wk 6 | 2 | +12.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 | 67 | -52.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 65 | -50.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 18 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 5 | +9.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 20 | -5.5 | Lost |
| -161at Kalshi |
| 10 of 13· last season77%needs 62% to break even6 of 9 at home |
| Record is last season's |
| -11.7Not beating its price |
| Over 19.5 receiving yardsMason Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +105at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 49% to break even6 of 9 at home | -4.3Not beating its price |
| Over 20.5 receiving yardsMason Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 53% to break even5 of 9 at home | -9.1Not beating its price |
| Over 21.5 receiving yardsMason Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -110at DraftKings | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 52% to break even4 of 9 at home | -17.5Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 receiving yardsMason Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +166at Kalshi | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 38% to break even3 of 9 at home | -12.5Not beating its price |
| Over 29.5 receiving yardsMason Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +218at Kalshi | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 31% to break even3 of 9 at home | -7.8Not beating its price |
| Over 31.5 receiving yardsMason Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +142at BetOnline | 5 of 15· last 15 games33%needs 41% to break even2 of 9 at home | -21.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +189at Kalshi |
| 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 35% to break even2 of 9 at home |
| -11.4Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDMason Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +490at Kalshi | 1 of 10· last 10 games10%needs 17% to break even0 of 9 at home | -12.0Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 receptionsMason Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 55% to break even4 of 9 at home | -13.6Not beating its price |
| Under 2.5 receptionsMason Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +118at FanDuel | 5 of 13· last season38%needs 46% to break even5 of 9 at home | Record is last season's | -23.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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