This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 18% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 0 of 50%needs 18% to break even | 0%–35% | 18 points shortwon 0%, needs 18% |
| Last 10 games | 1 of 1010%needs 18% to break even | 2%–35% | 8 points shortwon 10%, needs 18% |
| Last 15 games | 1 of 157%needs 18% to break even | 2%–25% | 11 points shortwon 7%, needs 18% |
| This season | 0 of 30%needs 18% to break even | 0%–47% | 18 points shortwon 0%, needs 18% |
| Last season | 1 of 138%needs 18% to break even | 2%–28% | 10 points shortwon 8%, needs 18% |
| Every game | 1 of 166%needs 18% to break even | 1%–24% | 12 points shortwon 6%, needs 18% |
Tonight NYJ plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against MIA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 0 of 9 at home. Tonight: MIA allows 0.8 touchdowns a game to tight ends, the 7th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 0.5): an easy matchup for this bet. How MIA defends tight ends
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Every Mason Taylor game, newest first: whether Taylor scored a touchdown.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.