This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 53% to break even | 14%–73% | 13 points shortwon 40%, needs 53% | 25.4receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 53% to break even | 19%–65% | 13 points shortwon 40%, needs 53% | 24.7receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 53% to break even | 28%–67% | 7 points shortwon 47%, needs 53% | 26.9receiving yards |
| This season | 1 of 333%needs 53% to break even | 8%–75% | 20 points shortwon 33%, needs 53% | 18.3receiving yards |
| Last season | 7 of 13 |
Tonight NYJ plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against MIA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 5 of 9 at home. Tonight: MIA allows 76.2 receiving yards a game to tight ends, the 4th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 54.2): a tough matchup for this bet. How MIA defends tight ends
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against under 21.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 21.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 32%–74% |
| 1 points betterwon 54%, needs 53% |
| 28.4receiving yards |
| Every game | 8 of 1650%needs 53% to break even | 31%–69% | 3 points shortwon 50%, needs 53% | 26.5receiving yards |
| 33 |
| -11.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 5 | 24 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | -2 | +23.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 14 | 51 | -29.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 21 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | 21 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | 30 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 | 4 | +17.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | 34 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 | 31 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Wk 6 | 2 | +19.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 | 67 | -45.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 65 | -43.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 18 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 5 | +16.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 20 | +1.5 | Won |
| -161at Kalshi |
| 10 of 13· last season77%needs 62% to break even6 of 9 at home |
| Record is last season's |
| -11.7Not beating its price |
| Over 19.5 receiving yardsMason Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +105at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 49% to break even6 of 9 at home | -4.3Not beating its price |
| Over 20.5 receiving yardsMason Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 53% to break even5 of 9 at home | -9.1Not beating its price |
| Over 21.5 receiving yardsMason Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -110at DraftKings | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 52% to break even4 of 9 at home | -17.5Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 receiving yardsMason Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +124at FanDuel | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 45% to break even3 of 9 at home | -17.9Not beating its price |
| Over 29.5 receiving yardsMason Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +182at FanDuel | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 35% to break even3 of 9 at home | -10.9Not beating its price |
| Over 31.5 receiving yardsMason Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +142at BetOnline | 5 of 15· last 15 games33%needs 41% to break even2 of 9 at home | -21.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +189at Kalshi |
| 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 35% to break even2 of 9 at home |
| -11.4Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDMason Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +490at Kalshi | 1 of 10· last 10 games10%needs 17% to break even0 of 9 at home | -12.0Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 receptionsMason Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 55% to break even4 of 9 at home | -13.6Not beating its price |
| Under 2.5 receptionsMason Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +118at FanDuel | 5 of 13· last season38%needs 46% to break even5 of 9 at home | Record is last season's | -23.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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