This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 56% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 56% to break even | 14%–73% | 16 points shortwon 40%, needs 56% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 56% to break even | 13%–56% | 26 points shortwon 30%, needs 56% |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 56% to break even | 22%–61% | 16 points shortwon 40%, needs 56% |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 56% to break even | 12%–65% | 23 points shortwon 33%, needs 56% |
| Last season | 8 of 1942%needs 56% to break even | 26%–61% | 14 points shortwon 42%, needs 56% |
| Every game | 10 of 2540%needs 56% to break even | 26%–56% | 16 points shortwon 40%, needs 56% |
Tonight SF plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against ATL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Total points in each game against over 48.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Total points | Beat 48.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 19 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 44.5 game total, SF gamesSan Francisco 49ers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF -3 spreadSan Francisco 49ers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |
| 40 |
| -8.5 |
| Lost |
| Oct 11 | 61 | +12.5 | Won |
| Oct 4 | 38 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Sep 27 | 66 | +17.5 | Won |
| Sep 20 | 48 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Sep 10 | 34 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 17 | 47 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 11 | 42 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Jan 3 | 16 | -32.5 | Lost |
| Dec 28 | 80 | +31.5 | Won |
| Dec 22 | 75 | +26.5 | Won |
| Dec 14 | 61 | +12.5 | Won |
| Nov 30 | 34 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Nov 24 | 29 | -19.5 | Lost |
| Nov 16 | 63 | +14.5 | Won |
| Nov 9 | 68 | +19.5 | Won |
| Nov 2 | 58 | +9.5 | Won |
| Oct 26 | 41 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Oct 19 | 30 | -18.5 | Lost |
| Oct 12 | 49 | +0.5 | Won |
| Oct 2 | 49 | +0.5 | Won |
| Sep 28 | 47 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Sep 21 | 31 | -17.5 | Lost |
| Sep 14 | 47 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Sep 7 | 30 | -18.5 | Lost |
| 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 37% to break even |
| -10.6Not beating its price |
| Under 46.5 game total, SF gamesSan Francisco 49ers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +137at Polymarket | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 42% to break even | -15.3Not beating its price |
| Under 47.5 game total, SF gamesSan Francisco 49ers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +119at Kalshi | 11 of 19· last season58%needs 46% to break even | Record is last season's | -12.9Not beating its price |
| Under 48.5 game total, SF gamesSan Francisco 49ers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +112at Polymarket | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 47% to break even | -8.0Not beating its price |
| Under 49.5 game total, SF gamesSan Francisco 49ers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | NV+104at Novig | 13 of 19· last season68%needs 49% to break even | Record is last season's | -7.4Not beating its price |
| Under 50.5 game total, SF gamesSan Francisco 49ers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -119at Polymarket | 13 of 19· last season68%needs 54% to break even | Record is last season's | -11.9Not beating its price |
| Under 51.5 game total, SF gamesSan Francisco 49ers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -142at Kalshi | 13 of 19· last season68%needs 59% to break even | Record is last season's | -15.5Not beating its price |
| Under 52.5 game total, SF gamesSan Francisco 49ers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -158at Polymarket | 13 of 19· last season68%needs 61% to break even | Record is last season's | -17.6Not beating its price |
| Under 53.5 game total, SF gamesSan Francisco 49ers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -175at Kalshi | 13 of 19· last season68%needs 64% to break even | Record is last season's | -19.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| 5 of 5· this season100%needs 49% to break even |
| Record is this season's |
| 5.5Good |
| SF -2.5 spreadSan Francisco 49ers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -119at Polymarket | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 54% to break even | Record is this season's | 3.7Good |
| SF -3.5 spreadSan Francisco 49ers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 44% to break even | 2.8Slight |
| SF -1.5 spreadSan Francisco 49ers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 57% to break even | Record is this season's | 1.7Slight |
| SF to win moneylineSan Francisco 49ers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | PX-142at ProphetX | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 59% to break even | Record is this season's | 1.1Slight |
| SF +1.5 spreadSan Francisco 49ers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -161at Kalshi | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 62% to break even | Record is this season's | -1.4Not beating its price |
| SF -4.5 1st half spreadSan Francisco 49ers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +173at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 37% to break even | -2.0Not beating its price |
| SF -5.5 spreadSan Francisco 49ers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +155at Polymarket | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 39% to break even | Record is this season's | -2.4Not beating its price |
| SF -4.5 spreadSan Francisco 49ers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +146at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 41% to break even | Record is this season's | -2.7Not beating its price |
| SF +0.5 2nd quarter spreadSan Francisco 49ers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -175at Kalshi | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 64% to break even | Record is this season's | -4.2Not beating its price |
| SF +2.5 spreadSan Francisco 49ers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -191at Kalshi | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 66% to break even | Record is this season's | -4.7Not beating its price |
| SF -1.5 1st half spreadSan Francisco 49ers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -101at Polymarket | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 50% to break even | -5.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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