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NFLGame lineSpread
SF -4.5 (spread)
Won5 of 6this season · 83%
Best price+146Kalshi
Price needs40.7%wins to break even
Every game13 of 25this season and last
Trend score-2.7Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 41% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 41% to break even | 44%–95% | 39 points betterwon 80%, needs 41% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 41% to break even | 27%–73% | 9 points betterwon 50%, needs 41% |
| Last 15 games | 10 of 1567%needs 41% to break even | 46%–83% | 26 points betterwon 67%, needs 41% |
| This season | 5 of 683%needs 41% to break even | 50%–96% | 43 points betterwon 83%, needs 41% |
| Last season | 8 of 1942%needs 41% to break even | 26%–61% | 1 points betterwon 42%, needs 41% |
| Every game | 13 of 2552%needs 41% to break even | 36%–67% | 11 points betterwon 52%, needs 41% |
Games like tonight
Tonight SF plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against ATL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Every book's price
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SF -4.5 (spread)2 books
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
Margin in each game against sf -4.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin | Beat 4.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 19 |  WSH | 6 | +1.5 | Won |
| Oct 11 |  SEA | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Oct 4 |  DEN | 10 | +5.5 | Won |
| Sep 27 |  ARI | 6 | +1.5 | Won |
| Sep 20 |  MIA | 22 | +17.5 | Won |
| Sep 10 |  LAR | 20 | +15.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 17 | SEA | -35 | -39.5 | Lost |
| Jan 11 |  PHI | 4 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Jan 3 | SEA | -10 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Dec 28 |  CHI | 4 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Dec 22 |  IND | 21 | +16.5 | Won |
| Dec 14 |  TEN | 13 | +8.5 | Won |
| Nov 30 |  CLE | 18 | +13.5 | Won |
| Nov 24 |  CAR | 11 | +6.5 | Won |
| Nov 16 | ARI | 19 | +14.5 | Won |
| Nov 9 | LAR | -16 | -20.5 | Lost |
| Nov 2 |  NYG | 10 | +5.5 | Won |
| Oct 26 |  HOU | -11 | -15.5 | Lost |
| Oct 19 |  ATL | 10 | +5.5 | Won |
| Oct 12 |  TB | -11 | -15.5 | Lost |
| Oct 2 | LAR | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Sep 28 |  JAX | -5 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Sep 21 | ARI | 1 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Sep 14 |  NO | 5 | +0.5 | Won |
| Sep 7 | SEA | 4 | -0.5 | Lost |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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More on San Francisco 49ers in this game
This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.