This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 59% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 5 of 5100%needs 59% to break even | 65%–100% | 41 points betterwon 100%, needs 59% |
| Last 10 games | 8 of 1080%needs 59% to break even | 54%–93% | 21 points betterwon 80%, needs 59% |
| Last 15 games | 13 of 1587%needs 59% to break even | 67%–95% | 28 points betterwon 87%, needs 59% |
| This season | 6 of 6100%needs 59% to break even | 69%–100% | 41 points betterwon 100%, needs 59% |
| Last season | 13 of 1968%needs 59% to break even | 50%–83% | 10 points betterwon 68%, needs 59% |
| Every game | 19 of 2576%needs 59% to break even | 60%–87% | 17 points betterwon 76%, needs 59% |
Tonight SF plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against ATL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against sf to win, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF -3 spreadSan Francisco 49ers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |
| 6 |
| +6 |
| Won |
| Oct 11 | 3 | +3 | Won |
| Oct 4 | 10 | +10 | Won |
| Sep 27 | 6 | +6 | Won |
| Sep 20 | 22 | +22 | Won |
| Sep 10 | 20 | +20 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 17 | -35 | -35 | Lost | |
| Jan 11 | 4 | +4 | Won |
| Jan 3 | -10 | -10 | Lost |
| Dec 28 | 4 | +4 | Won |
| Dec 22 | 21 | +21 | Won |
| Dec 14 | 13 | +13 | Won |
| Nov 30 | 18 | +18 | Won |
| Nov 24 | 11 | +11 | Won |
| Nov 16 | 19 | +19 | Won |
| Nov 9 | -16 | -16 | Lost |
| Nov 2 | 10 | +10 | Won |
| Oct 26 | -11 | -11 | Lost |
| Oct 19 | 10 | +10 | Won |
| Oct 12 | -11 | -11 | Lost |
| Oct 2 | 3 | +3 | Won |
| Sep 28 | -5 | -5 | Lost |
| Sep 21 | 1 | +1 | Won |
| Sep 14 | 5 | +5 | Won |
| Sep 7 | 4 | +4 | Won |
| 5 of 5· this season100%needs 49% to break even |
| Record is this season's |
| 5.5Good |
| SF -2.5 spreadSan Francisco 49ers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -119at Polymarket | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 54% to break even | Record is this season's | 3.7Good |
| SF -3.5 spreadSan Francisco 49ers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 44% to break even | 2.8Slight |
| SF -1.5 spreadSan Francisco 49ers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 57% to break even | Record is this season's | 1.7Slight |
| SF +1.5 spreadSan Francisco 49ers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -161at Kalshi | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 62% to break even | Record is this season's | -1.4Not beating its price |
| SF -4.5 1st half spreadSan Francisco 49ers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +173at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 37% to break even | -2.0Not beating its price |
| SF -5.5 spreadSan Francisco 49ers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +155at Polymarket | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 39% to break even | Record is this season's | -2.4Not beating its price |
| SF -4.5 spreadSan Francisco 49ers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +146at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 41% to break even | Record is this season's | -2.7Not beating its price |
| SF +2.5 spreadSan Francisco 49ers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -191at Kalshi | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 66% to break even | Record is this season's | -4.7Not beating its price |
| SF +0.5 2nd quarter spreadSan Francisco 49ers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -183at Kalshi | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 65% to break even | Record is this season's | -5.1Not beating its price |
| SF -1.5 1st half spreadSan Francisco 49ers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -101at Polymarket | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 50% to break even | -5.4Not beating its price |
| SF -3.5 1st half spreadSan Francisco 49ers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +140at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 42% to break even | -6.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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