This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 60% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 60% to break even | 27%–86% | evenwon 60%, needs 60% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 60% to break even | 27%–73% | 10 points shortwon 50%, needs 60% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 60% to break even | 39%–78% | evenwon 60%, needs 60% |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 60% to break even | 35%–88% | 7 points betterwon 67%, needs 60% |
| Last season | 9 of 1947%needs 60% to break even | 30%–65% | 12 points shortwon 47%, needs 60% |
| Every game | 13 of 2552%needs 60% to break even | 36%–67% | 8 points shortwon 52%, needs 60% |
Tonight SF plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against ATL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
SF points in each game against over 24.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | SF points | Beat 24.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 19 | 23 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 11 | 32 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Oct 4 | 24 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 27 | 36 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Sep 20 | 35 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Sep 10 | 27 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 17 | 6 | -18.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 11 | 23 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 3 | 3 | -21.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 28 | 42 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Dec 22 | 48 | +23.5 | Won | |
| Dec 14 | 37 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Nov 30 | 26 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 24 | 20 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 16 | 41 | +16.5 | Won | |
| Nov 9 | 26 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 2 | 34 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Oct 26 | 15 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 19 | 20 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 12 | 19 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 2 | 26 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 28 | 21 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 21 | 16 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 14 | 26 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 7 | 17 | -7.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 24.5 team totalSan Francisco 49ers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +124at Kalshi | 10 of 19· last season53%needs 45% to break even | Record is last season's | -18.0Not beating its price | |
| Under 27.5 team totalSan Francisco 49ers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -142at Kalshi | 14 of 19· last season74%needs 59% to break even | Record is last season's | -20.6Not beating its price | |
| Under 28.5 team totalSan Francisco 49ers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -168at Kalshi | 14 of 19· last season74%needs 63% to break even | Record is last season's | -23.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.