This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 45% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 45% to break even | 27%–86% | 15 points betterwon 60%, needs 45% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 45% to break even | 27%–73% | 5 points betterwon 50%, needs 45% |
| Last 15 games | 10 of 1567%needs 45% to break even | 46%–83% | 22 points betterwon 67%, needs 45% |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 45% to break even | 35%–88% | 22 points betterwon 67%, needs 45% |
| Last season | 10 of 1953%needs 45% to break even | 35%–70% | 8 points betterwon 53%, needs 45% |
| Every game | 14 of 2556%needs 45% to break even | 40%–71% | 11 points betterwon 56%, needs 45% |
Tonight SF plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against ATL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
1Q margin in each game against sf 1q -0.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF -3 spreadSan Francisco 49ers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |
| 10 |
| +9.5 |
| Won |
| Oct 11 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Oct 4 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Sep 27 | 7 | +6.5 | Won |
| Sep 20 | 7 | +6.5 | Won |
| Sep 10 | 3 | +2.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 17 | -17 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 11 | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Jan 3 | -7 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Dec 28 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Dec 22 | 7 | +6.5 | Won |
| Dec 14 | 4 | +3.5 | Won |
| Nov 30 | 7 | +6.5 | Won |
| Nov 24 | 7 | +6.5 | Won |
| Nov 16 | 6 | +5.5 | Won |
| Nov 9 | -14 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Nov 2 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Oct 26 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Oct 19 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Oct 12 | -4 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Oct 2 | 7 | +6.5 | Won |
| Sep 28 | 3 | +2.5 | Won |
| Sep 21 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Sep 14 | 6 | +5.5 | Won |
| Sep 7 | 7 | +6.5 | Won |
| 5 of 5· this season100%needs 49% to break even |
| Record is this season's |
| 5.5Good |
| SF -2.5 spreadSan Francisco 49ers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -119at Polymarket | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 54% to break even | Record is this season's | 3.7Good |
| SF -3.5 spreadSan Francisco 49ers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 44% to break even | 2.8Slight |
| SF -1.5 spreadSan Francisco 49ers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 57% to break even | Record is this season's | 1.7Slight |
| SF to win moneylineSan Francisco 49ers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | PX-142at ProphetX | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 59% to break even | Record is this season's | 1.1Slight |
| SF +1.5 spreadSan Francisco 49ers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -161at Kalshi | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 62% to break even | Record is this season's | -1.4Not beating its price |
| SF -4.5 1st half spreadSan Francisco 49ers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +173at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 37% to break even | -2.0Not beating its price |
| SF -5.5 spreadSan Francisco 49ers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +155at Polymarket | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 39% to break even | Record is this season's | -2.4Not beating its price |
| SF -4.5 spreadSan Francisco 49ers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +146at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 41% to break even | Record is this season's | -2.7Not beating its price |
| SF +2.5 spreadSan Francisco 49ers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -191at Kalshi | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 66% to break even | Record is this season's | -4.7Not beating its price |
| SF +0.5 2nd quarter spreadSan Francisco 49ers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -183at Kalshi | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 65% to break even | Record is this season's | -5.1Not beating its price |
| SF -1.5 1st half spreadSan Francisco 49ers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -101at Polymarket | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 50% to break even | -5.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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