This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 64% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 64% to break even | 44%–95% | 16 points betterwon 80%, needs 64% | 56.4rushing yards |
| Last 10 games | 8 of 1080%needs 64% to break even | 54%–93% | 16 points betterwon 80%, needs 64% | 59.6rushing yards |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 64% to break even | 39%–78% | 4 points shortwon 60%, needs 64% | 67.3rushing yards |
| This season | 5 of 683%needs 64% to break even | 50%–96% | 20 points betterwon 83%, needs 64% | 58.3rushing yards |
| Last season |
Tonight SF plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against ATL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 10 of 13 on the road. Tonight: ATL allows 77.3 rushing yards a game to running backs, the 8th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 89.6): an easy matchup for this bet. How ATL defends running backs
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Rushing yards in each game against under 69.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 44%–79% |
| evenwon 63%, needs 64% |
| 67.6rushing yards |
| Every game | 17 of 2568%needs 64% to break even | 52%–81% | 4 points betterwon 68%, needs 64% | 65.4rushing yards |
| Date | Opponent | Rushing yards | Beat 69.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 64 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 68 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 52 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 75 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 23 | +46.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 68 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 20 | 35 | +34.5 | Won | |
| Wk 19 | 48 | +21.5 | Won | |
| Wk 18 | 23 | +46.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 140 | -70.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 117 | -47.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | 73 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 53 | +16.5 | Won | |
| Wk 12 | 89 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 11 | 81 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 10 | 30 | +39.5 | Won | |
| Wk 9 | 106 | -36.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | 25 | +44.5 | Won | |
| Wk 7 | 129 | -59.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 6 | 54 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 57 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 49 | +20.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 52 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 55 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 69 | +0.5 | Won | |
| -199at Kalshi |
| 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 67% to break even10 of 13 on the road |
| -16.9Not beating its price |
| Over 59.5 rushing yardsChristian McCaffrey · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -121at Kalshi | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 55% to break even6 of 13 on the road | -20.1Not beating its price |
| Over 60.5 rushing yardsChristian McCaffrey · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -113at DraftKings | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 53% to break even6 of 13 on the road | -18.7Not beating its price |
| Over 61.5 rushing yardsChristian McCaffrey · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -115at BetRivers | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 53% to break even6 of 13 on the road | -19.0Not beating its price |
| Over 69.5 rushing yardsChristian McCaffrey · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | +134at Kalshi | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 43% to break even3 of 13 on the road | -25.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -114at DraftKings |
| 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 53% to break even7 of 13 on the road |
| -6.5Not beating its price |
| Under 43.5 receiving yardsChristian McCaffrey · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -114at BetOnline | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 53% to break even7 of 13 on the road | -6.5Not beating its price |
| Under 46.5 receiving yardsChristian McCaffrey · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -117at BetRivers | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 54% to break even7 of 13 on the road | -7.0Not beating its price |
| Under 4.5 receptionsChristian McCaffrey · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | +159at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 39% to break even3 of 13 on the road | -9.8Not beating its price |
| Under 5.5 receptionsChristian McCaffrey · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -112at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 53% to break even7 of 13 on the road | Record is this season's | -10.9Not beating its price |
| Under 49.5 receiving yardsChristian McCaffrey · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -142at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 59% to break even7 of 13 on the road | -11.0Not beating its price |
| Under 15.5 rush attemptsChristian McCaffrey · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -121at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 55% to break even7 of 13 on the road | -11.9Not beating its price |
| Under 109.5 rush + rec yardsChristian McCaffrey · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -107at Kalshi | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 52% to break even6 of 13 on the road | -18.0Not beating its price |
| Under 39.5 receiving yardsChristian McCaffrey · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | +119at Kalshi | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 46% to break even5 of 13 on the road | -19.7Not beating its price |
| Over 134.5 rush + rec yardsChristian McCaffrey · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | +198at Kalshi | 9 of 19· last season47%needs 34% to break even4 of 13 on the road | Record is last season's | -19.9Not beating its price |
| Doesn't score a TDChristian McCaffrey · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | +181at Kalshi | 6 of 19· last season32%needs 36% to break even4 of 13 on the road | Record is last season's | -21.9Not beating its price |
| Over 39.5 receiving yardsChristian McCaffrey · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -148at Kalshi | 14 of 19· last season74%needs 60% to break even8 of 13 on the road | Record is last season's | -22.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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