This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 54% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 54% to break even | 44%–95% | 26 points betterwon 80%, needs 54% |
| Last 10 games | 8 of 1080%needs 54% to break even | 54%–93% | 26 points betterwon 80%, needs 54% |
| Last 15 games | 12 of 1580%needs 54% to break even | 59%–92% | 26 points betterwon 80%, needs 54% |
| This season | 5 of 683%needs 54% to break even | 50%–96% | 29 points betterwon 83%, needs 54% |
| Last season | 8 of 1942%needs 54% to break even | 26%–61% | 12 points shortwon 42%, needs 54% |
Tonight SF plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against ATL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against under 46.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 46.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 39.5 receiving yardsChristian McCaffrey |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 15.5 rush attemptsChristian McCaffrey |
| Every game | 13 of 2552%needs 54% to break even | 36%–67% | 2 points shortwon 52%, needs 54% |
| Wk 6 |
| 53 |
| -6.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 5 | 15 | +31.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 18 | +28.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 41 | +5.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 43 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 20 | +26.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 20 | 39 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Wk 19 | 66 | -19.5 | Lost |
| Wk 18 | 34 | +12.5 | Won |
| Wk 17 | 41 | +5.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 29 | +17.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 14 | +32.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 21 | +25.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | 53 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 40 | +6.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 | 66 | -19.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 67 | -20.5 | Lost |
| Wk 8 | 43 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 72 | -25.5 | Lost |
| Wk 6 | 57 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 | 82 | -35.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 92 | -45.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 88 | -41.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 52 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 73 | -26.5 | Lost |
| -137at Kalshi |
| 14 of 19· last season74%needs 58% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -20.5Not beating its price |
| Over 42.5 receiving yardsChristian McCaffrey · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -114at DraftKings | 12 of 19· last season63%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -27.2Not beating its price |
| Over 43.5 receiving yardsChristian McCaffrey · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -114at BetOnline | 11 of 19· last season58%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -32.4Not beating its price |
| Over 44.5 receiving yardsChristian McCaffrey · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -114at FanDuel | 11 of 19· last season58%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -32.4Not beating its price |
| Over 46.5 receiving yardsChristian McCaffrey · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -113at BetRivers | 11 of 19· last season58%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -32.3Not beating its price |
| Over 49.5 receiving yardsChristian McCaffrey · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | +124at Kalshi | 11 of 19· last season58%needs 45% to break even | Record is last season's | -25.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -126at Kalshi |
| 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 56% to break even |
| -12.7Not beating its price |
| Under 5.5 receptionsChristian McCaffrey · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -137at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 58% to break even | Record is this season's | -15.0Not beating its price |
| Over 59.5 rushing yardsChristian McCaffrey · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -110at DraftKings | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 52% to break even | -18.1Not beating its price |
| Over 60.5 rushing yardsChristian McCaffrey · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -114at FanDuel | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 53% to break even | -18.8Not beating its price |
| Over 62.5 rushing yardsChristian McCaffrey · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -114at BetRivers | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 53% to break even | -18.8Not beating its price |
| Doesn't score a TDChristian McCaffrey · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | +189at Kalshi | 6 of 19· last season32%needs 35% to break even | Record is last season's | -21.1Not beating its price |
| Under 109.5 rush + rec yardsChristian McCaffrey · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -126at Kalshi | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 56% to break even | -21.4Not beating its price |
| Under 59.5 rushing yardsChristian McCaffrey · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -103at Kalshi | 11 of 19· last season58%needs 51% to break even | Record is last season's | -22.1Not beating its price |
| Over 109.5 rush + rec yardsChristian McCaffrey · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -107at Kalshi | 12 of 19· last season63%needs 52% to break even | Record is last season's | -22.2Not beating its price |
| Over 5.5 receptionsChristian McCaffrey · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | +120at BetMGM | 12 of 19· last season63%needs 45% to break even | Record is last season's | -22.4Not beating its price |
| Under 60.5 rushing yardsChristian McCaffrey · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -114at FanDuel | 11 of 19· last season58%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -24.2Not beating its price |
| Under 62.5 rushing yardsChristian McCaffrey · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -117at BetRivers | 11 of 19· last season58%needs 54% to break even | Record is last season's | -24.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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