This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 22% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 22% to break even | 27%–86% | 38 points betterwon 60%, needs 22% | 1.6receptions |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 22% to break even | 27%–73% | 28 points betterwon 50%, needs 22% | 1.4receptions |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 22% to break even | 33%–72% | 31 points betterwon 53%, needs 22% | 1.5receptions |
| This season | 2 of 450%needs 22% to break even | 18%–82% | 28 points betterwon 50%, needs 22% | 1.5receptions |
| Last season | 8 of 1650%needs 22% to break even | 31%–69% | 28 points betterwon 50%, needs 22% | 1.5receptions |
| Every game | 10 of 2050%needs 22% to break even | 33%–67% | 28 points betterwon 50%, needs 22% | 1.5receptions |
Tonight ATL plays at home, as the underdog, after a loss, against SF. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 4 of 11 at home. Tonight: SF allows 5.3 receptions a game to tight ends, the 16th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 5.5). How SF defends tight ends
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receptions in each game against over 1.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receptions | Beat 1.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 22 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 20 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 19 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 18 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 16 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 12 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 10 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 9 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 7 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 6 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 0.5 receptionsAustin Hooper · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +116at DraftKings | 2 of 15· last 15 games13%needs 46% to break even1 of 11 at home | -35.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.