This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 44% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 44% to break even | 5%–56% | 24 points shortwon 20%, needs 44% | 11.2receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 44% to break even | 13%–56% | 14 points shortwon 30%, needs 44% | 12receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 44% to break even | 22%–61% | 4 points shortwon 40%, needs 44% | 15.2receiving yards |
| This season | 1 of 425%needs 44% to break even | 6%–64% | 19 points shortwon 25%, needs 44% | 11.5receiving yards |
| Last season | 8 of 1650%needs 44% to break even | 31%–69% | 6 points betterwon 50%, needs 44% | 17.9receiving yards |
| Every game | 9 of 2045%needs 44% to break even | 28%–63% | 1 points betterwon 45%, needs 44% | 16.7receiving yards |
Tonight ATL plays at home, as the underdog, after a loss, against SF. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 6 of 11 at home. Tonight: SF allows 41.8 receiving yards a game to tight ends, the 8th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 54.2): a tough matchup for this bet. How SF defends tight ends
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against over 13.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 13.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 6 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 9 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 11 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 20 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 22 | 10 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 20 | 14 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 19 | 0 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 18 | 5 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 11 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 34 | +20.5 | Won | |
| Wk 12 | 39 | +25.5 | Won | |
| Wk 10 | 0 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 9 | 20 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Wk 8 | 38 | +24.5 | Won | |
| Wk 7 | 11 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 6 | 5 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 24 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 28 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 38 | +24.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 10 | -3.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 receiving yardsAustin Hooper · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -110at DraftKings | 2 of 15· last 15 games13%needs 52% to break even1 of 11 at home | -40.0Not beating its price | ||
| Under 4.5 receiving yardsAustin Hooper · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 2 of 15· last 15 games13%needs 53% to break even1 of 11 at home | -40.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 receptionsAustin Hooper · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 14 of 16· last season88%needs 55% to break even10 of 11 at home | Record is last season's | 8.3Strong | |
| Over 1.5 receptionsAustin Hooper · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +351at Kalshi | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 22% to break even4 of 11 at home | 4.3Good | ||
| Scores a TDAustin Hooper · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +1241at Kalshi | 3 of 15· last 15 games20%needs 7% to break even0 of 11 at home | -1.2Not beating its price | ||
| Under 0.5 receptionsAustin Hooper · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +116at DraftKings | 2 of 15· last 15 games13%needs 46% to break even1 of 11 at home | -35.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.