This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 5 of 5100%needs 53% to break even | 65%–100% | 47 points betterwon 100%, needs 53% | 11.2receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 9 of 1090%needs 53% to break even | 65%–98% | 37 points betterwon 90%, needs 53% | 12receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 13 of 1587%needs 53% to break even | 67%–95% | 33 points betterwon 87%, needs 53% | 15.2receiving yards |
| This season | 4 of 4100%needs 53% to break even | 60%–100% | 47 points betterwon 100%, needs 53% | 11.5receiving yards |
Tonight ATL plays at home, as the underdog, after a loss, against SF. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 10 of 11 at home. Tonight: SF allows 41.8 receiving yards a game to tight ends, the 8th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 54.2): a tough matchup for this bet. How SF defends tight ends
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against over 3.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 3.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| Last season |
| 14 of 1688%needs 53% to break even |
| 68%–96% |
| 34 points betterwon 88%, needs 53% |
| 17.9receiving yards |
| Every game | 18 of 2090%needs 53% to break even | 74%–97% | 37 points betterwon 90%, needs 53% | 16.7receiving yards |
| Wk 6 |
| 6 |
| +2.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 4 | 9 | +5.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 11 | +7.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 20 | +16.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 22 | 10 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Wk 20 | 14 | +10.5 | Won |
| Wk 19 | 0 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Wk 18 | 5 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 17 | 11 | +7.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 34 | +30.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | 39 | +35.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 | 0 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 20 | +16.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | 38 | +34.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 11 | +7.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 | 5 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 24 | +20.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 28 | +24.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 38 | +34.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 10 | +6.5 | Won |
| -110at DraftKings |
| 2 of 15· last 15 games13%needs 52% to break even1 of 11 at home |
| -40.0Not beating its price |
| Under 4.5 receiving yardsAustin Hooper · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 2 of 15· last 15 games13%needs 53% to break even1 of 11 at home | -40.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -121at Kalshi |
| 14 of 16· last season88%needs 55% to break even10 of 11 at home |
| Record is last season's |
| 8.3Strong |
| Over 1.5 receptionsAustin Hooper · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +351at Kalshi | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 22% to break even4 of 11 at home | 4.3Good |
| Scores a TDAustin Hooper · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +1241at Kalshi | 3 of 15· last 15 games20%needs 7% to break even0 of 11 at home | -1.2Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 receptionsAustin Hooper · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +116at DraftKings | 2 of 15· last 15 games13%needs 46% to break even1 of 11 at home | -35.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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