This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 7% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 7% to break even | 5%–56% | 13 points betterwon 20%, needs 7% |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 1020%needs 7% to break even | 7%–46% | 13 points betterwon 20%, needs 7% |
| Last 15 games | 3 of 1520%needs 7% to break even | 8%–41% | 13 points betterwon 20%, needs 7% |
| This season | 1 of 425%needs 7% to break even | 6%–64% | 18 points betterwon 25%, needs 7% |
| Last season | 2 of 1613%needs 7% to break even | 4%–32% | 5 points betterwon 13%, needs 7% |
| Every game | 3 of 2015%needs 7% to break even | 6%–32% | 8 points betterwon 15%, needs 7% |
Tonight ATL plays at home, as the underdog, after a loss, against SF. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 0 of 11 at home. Tonight: SF allows 0 touchdowns a game to tight ends, the 3rd fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 0.5): a tough matchup for this bet. How SF defends tight ends
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every Austin Hooper game, newest first: whether Hooper scored a touchdown.
| Date | Opponent | Result | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| This season | |||
| Wk 6 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 1 TD | Won | |
| Wk 2 | No TD | Lost | |
| Last season | |||
| Wk 22 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 20 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 19 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 18 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 1 TD | Won | |
| Wk 16 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 12 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 10 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 9 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | 1 TD | Won | |
| Wk 6 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | No TD | Lost | |
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.