This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 53% to break even | 27%–86% | 7 points betterwon 60%, needs 53% | 223.8passing yards |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 53% to break even | 27%–73% | 3 points shortwon 50%, needs 53% | 232.1passing yards |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1354%needs 53% to break even | 32%–74% | 1 points betterwon 54%, needs 53% | 225.1passing yards |
| This season | 2 of 450%needs 53% to break even | 18%–82% | 3 points shortwon 50%, needs 53% | 236passing yards |
| Last season |
Tonight ATL plays at home, as the underdog, after a loss, against SF. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 2 of 6 at home. Tonight: SF allows 225.7 passing yards a game to quarterbacks, the 11th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 236.1): an easy matchup for this bet. How SF defends quarterbacks
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Passing yards in each game against under 236.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Passing yards | Beat 236.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 225 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores a TD |
| 30%–78% |
| 3 points betterwon 56%, needs 53% |
| 220.2passing yards |
| Every game | 7 of 1354%needs 53% to break even | 32%–74% | 1 points betterwon 54%, needs 53% | 225.1passing yards |
| 240 |
| -3.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 4 | 223 | +13.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 256 | -19.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 11 | 175 | +61.5 | Won | |
| Wk 10 | 177 | +59.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | 221 | +15.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 241 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Wk 6 | 250 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 313 | -76.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 172 | +64.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 135 | +101.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 298 | -61.5 | Lost |
| -192at DraftKings |
| 4 of 4· this season100%needs 66% to break even5 of 6 at home |
| Record is this season's |
| -14.2Not beating its price |
| Over 216.5 passing yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -200at BetOnline | 4 of 4· this season100%needs 67% to break even5 of 6 at home | Record is this season's | -14.8Not beating its price |
| Over 219.5 passing yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -147at DraftKings | 4 of 4· this season100%needs 60% to break even5 of 6 at home | Record is this season's | -9.6Not beating its price |
| Over 224.5 passing yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -120at Fanatics | 3 of 4· this season75%needs 55% to break even5 of 6 at home | Record is this season's | -17.6Not beating its price |
| Over 225.5 passing yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 5 of 10· last 10 games50%needs 53% to break even4 of 6 at home | -22.9Not beating its price |
| Over 226.5 passing yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -152at BetOnline | 5 of 10· last 10 games50%needs 60% to break even4 of 6 at home | -27.8Not beating its price |
| Over 229.5 passing yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 5 of 10· last 10 games50%needs 53% to break even4 of 6 at home | -22.7Not beating its price |
| Over 230.5 passing yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -111at DraftKings | 5 of 10· last 10 games50%needs 53% to break even4 of 6 at home | -22.2Not beating its price |
| Over 236.5 passing yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetOnline | 5 of 10· last 10 games50%needs 53% to break even4 of 6 at home | -22.9Not beating its price |
| Over 239.5 passing yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +110at DraftKings | 5 of 10· last 10 games50%needs 48% to break even4 of 6 at home | -18.6Not beating its price |
| Over 246.5 passing yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +108at BetOnline | 4 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped31%needs 48% to break even3 of 6 at home | -26.9Not beating its price |
| Over 249.5 passing yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +146at Kalshi | 4 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped31%needs 41% to break even3 of 6 at home | -21.5Not beating its price |
| Over 256.5 passing yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +133at BetOnline | 2 of 9· last season22%needs 43% to break even2 of 6 at home | Record is last season's | -28.5Not beating its price |
| Over 259.5 passing yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +177at DraftKings | 2 of 9· last season22%needs 36% to break even2 of 6 at home | Record is last season's | -23.6Not beating its price |
| Over 266.5 passing yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +163at BetOnline | 2 of 9· last season22%needs 38% to break even2 of 6 at home | Record is last season's | -25.0Not beating its price |
| Over 269.5 passing yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +222at DraftKings | 2 of 9· last season22%needs 31% to break even2 of 6 at home | Record is last season's | -20.0Not beating its price |
| Over 276.5 passing yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +200at BetOnline | 2 of 9· last season22%needs 33% to break even2 of 6 at home | Record is last season's | -21.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +1150at BetMGM |
| 1 of 9· last season11%needs 8% to break even1 of 6 at home |
| Record is last season's |
| -5.1Not beating its price |
| Under 19.5 completionsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -103at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 51% to break even3 of 6 at home | -6.3Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 interceptions thrownMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 10 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped77%needs 57% to break even5 of 6 at home | -6.4Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 passing TDsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -152at BetOnline | 10 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped77%needs 60% to break even4 of 6 at home | -10.4Not beating its price |
| Over 219.5 pass + rush yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -166at DraftKings | 4 of 4· this season100%needs 62% to break even5 of 6 at home | Record is this season's | -11.7Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 rushing yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -121at DraftKings | 7 of 9· last season78%needs 55% to break even6 of 6 at home | Record is last season's | -11.8Not beating its price |
| Over 4.5 rushing yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +140at FanDuel | 6 of 9· last season67%needs 42% to break even4 of 6 at home | Record is last season's | -11.9Not beating its price |
| Over 35.5 pass attemptsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +230at DraftKings | 4 of 9· last season44%needs 30% to break even1 of 6 at home | Record is last season's | -14.8Not beating its price |
| Over 239.5 pass + rush yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -102at DraftKings | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 50% to break even4 of 6 at home | -17.0Not beating its price |
| Over 224.5 pass + rush yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -152at FanDuel | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 60% to break even5 of 6 at home | -17.9Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 rushing yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -102at FanDuel | 6 of 9· last season67%needs 50% to break even4 of 6 at home | Record is last season's | -18.3Not beating its price |
| Over 31.5 pass attemptsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -106at DraftKings | 7 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped54%needs 51% to break even4 of 6 at home | -18.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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