This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 66% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 66% to break even | 44%–95% | 14 points betterwon 80%, needs 66% | 223.8passing yards |
| Last 10 games | 8 of 1080%needs 66% to break even | 54%–93% | 14 points betterwon 80%, needs 66% | 232.1passing yards |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1369%needs 66% to break even | 46%–85% | 3 points betterwon 69%, needs 66% | 225.1passing yards |
| This season | 4 of 4100%needs 66% to break even | 60%–100% | 34 points betterwon 100%, needs 66% | 236passing yards |
| Last season |
Tonight ATL plays at home, as the underdog, after a loss, against SF. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 5 of 6 at home. Tonight: SF allows 225.7 passing yards a game to quarterbacks, the 11th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 236.1): a tough matchup for this bet. How SF defends quarterbacks
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Passing yards in each game against over 209.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Passing yards | Beat 209.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 225 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores a TD |
| 5 of 956%needs 66% to break even |
| 30%–78% |
| 10 points shortwon 56%, needs 66% |
| 220.2passing yards |
| Every game | 9 of 1369%needs 66% to break even | 46%–85% | 3 points betterwon 69%, needs 66% | 225.1passing yards |
| 240 |
| +30.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 4 | 223 | +13.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 256 | +46.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 11 | 175 | -34.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 10 | 177 | -32.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 221 | +11.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 241 | +31.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 | 250 | +40.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 313 | +103.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 172 | -37.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 135 | -74.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 298 | +88.5 | Won |
| +181at Kalshi |
| 4 of 9· last season44%needs 36% to break even1 of 6 at home |
| Record is last season's |
| -18.2Not beating its price |
| Under 224.5 passing yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +105at Kalshi | 5 of 9· last season56%needs 49% to break even1 of 6 at home | Record is last season's | -20.8Not beating its price |
| Under 225.5 passing yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -110at Fanatics | 7 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped54%needs 52% to break even2 of 6 at home | -18.2Not beating its price |
| Under 229.5 passing yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 7 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped54%needs 53% to break even2 of 6 at home | -18.8Not beating its price |
| Under 230.5 passing yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -113at DraftKings | 7 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped54%needs 53% to break even2 of 6 at home | -18.7Not beating its price |
| Under 236.5 passing yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -112at BetOnline | 7 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped54%needs 53% to break even2 of 6 at home | -18.5Not beating its price |
| Under 249.5 passing yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -183at Kalshi | 9 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped69%needs 65% to break even3 of 6 at home | -16.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +1150at BetMGM |
| 1 of 9· last season11%needs 8% to break even1 of 6 at home |
| Record is last season's |
| -5.1Not beating its price |
| Under 19.5 completionsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -103at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 51% to break even3 of 6 at home | -6.3Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 interceptions thrownMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 10 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped77%needs 57% to break even5 of 6 at home | -6.4Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 passing TDsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -152at BetOnline | 10 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped77%needs 60% to break even4 of 6 at home | -10.4Not beating its price |
| Over 219.5 pass + rush yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -166at DraftKings | 4 of 4· this season100%needs 62% to break even5 of 6 at home | Record is this season's | -11.7Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 rushing yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -121at DraftKings | 7 of 9· last season78%needs 55% to break even6 of 6 at home | Record is last season's | -11.8Not beating its price |
| Over 4.5 rushing yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +140at FanDuel | 6 of 9· last season67%needs 42% to break even4 of 6 at home | Record is last season's | -11.9Not beating its price |
| Over 35.5 pass attemptsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +230at DraftKings | 4 of 9· last season44%needs 30% to break even1 of 6 at home | Record is last season's | -14.8Not beating its price |
| Over 239.5 pass + rush yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -102at DraftKings | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 50% to break even4 of 6 at home | -17.0Not beating its price |
| Over 224.5 pass + rush yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -152at FanDuel | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 60% to break even5 of 6 at home | -17.9Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 rushing yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -102at FanDuel | 6 of 9· last season67%needs 50% to break even4 of 6 at home | Record is last season's | -18.3Not beating its price |
| Over 31.5 pass attemptsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -106at DraftKings | 7 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped54%needs 51% to break even4 of 6 at home | -18.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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