This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 53% to break even | 14%–73% | 13 points shortwon 40%, needs 53% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 53% to break even | 27%–73% | 3 points shortwon 50%, needs 53% |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1346%needs 53% to break even | 26%–68% | 7 points shortwon 46%, needs 53% |
| This season | 2 of 450%needs 53% to break even | 18%–82% | 3 points shortwon 50%, needs 53% |
| Last season | 4 of 944%needs 53% to break even | 22%–70% | 9 points shortwon 44%, needs 53% |
| Every game |
Tonight ATL plays at home, as the underdog, after a loss, against SF. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Passing yards in each game against over 225.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 199.5 passing yardsMichael Penix Jr. |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 19.5 completionsMichael Penix Jr. |
| 26%–68% |
| 7 points shortwon 46%, needs 53% |
| Lost |
| Wk 3 | 256 | +30.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 11 | 175 | -50.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 10 | 177 | -48.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 221 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 | 241 | +15.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 | 250 | +24.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 313 | +87.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 172 | -53.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 135 | -90.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 298 | +72.5 | Won |
| +173at Kalshi |
| 4 of 9· last season44%needs 37% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -18.9Not beating its price |
| Under 224.5 passing yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +105at Kalshi | 5 of 9· last season56%needs 49% to break even | Record is last season's | -20.8Not beating its price |
| Under 225.5 passing yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -115at Fanatics | 7 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped54%needs 53% to break even | -19.0Not beating its price |
| Under 227.5 passing yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 7 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped54%needs 53% to break even | -18.8Not beating its price |
| Under 230.5 passing yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -112at DraftKings | 7 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped54%needs 53% to break even | -18.5Not beating its price |
| Under 233.5 passing yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -114at BetRivers | 7 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped54%needs 53% to break even | -18.8Not beating its price |
| Under 249.5 passing yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -191at Kalshi | 9 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped69%needs 66% to break even | -17.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +101at Kalshi |
| 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 50% to break even |
| -5.6Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 interceptions thrownMichael Penix Jr. · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 10 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped77%needs 57% to break even | -6.4Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 passing TDsMichael Penix Jr. · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -154at Kalshi | 10 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped77%needs 61% to break even | -10.6Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 rushing yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -112at DraftKings | 7 of 9· last season78%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -15.9Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 rushing yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -102at FanDuel | 6 of 9· last season67%needs 50% to break even | Record is last season's | -18.3Not beating its price |
| Over 31.5 pass attemptsMichael Penix Jr. · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 7 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped54%needs 53% to break even | -19.9Not beating its price |
| Under 31.5 pass attemptsMichael Penix Jr. · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -116at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 54% to break even | -21.6Not beating its price |
| Under 2.5 rushing yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -128at FanDuel | 3 of 4· this season75%needs 56% to break even | Record is this season's | -22.2Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 rushing yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -112at DraftKings | 3 of 4· this season75%needs 53% to break even | Record is this season's | -23.0Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 passing TDsMichael Penix Jr. · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +119at Kalshi | 3 of 10· last 10 games30%needs 46% to break even | -27.0Not beating its price |
| Over 19.5 completionsMichael Penix Jr. · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -126at Kalshi | 5 of 9· last season56%needs 56% to break even | Record is last season's | -29.1Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 interceptions thrownMichael Penix Jr. · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 3 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped23%needs 48% to break even | -29.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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