This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 48% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 48% to break even | 5%–56% | 28 points shortwon 20%, needs 48% | 223.8passing yards |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 48% to break even | 13%–56% | 18 points shortwon 30%, needs 48% | 232.1passing yards |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 1331%needs 48% to break even | 15%–54% | 17 points shortwon 31%, needs 48% | 225.1passing yards |
| This season | 1 of 425%needs 48% to break even | 6%–64% | 23 points shortwon 25%, needs 48% | 236passing yards |
| Last season | 3 of 933% |
Tonight ATL plays at home, as the underdog, after a loss, against SF. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 3 of 6 at home. Tonight: SF allows 225.7 passing yards a game to quarterbacks, the 11th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 236.1): a tough matchup for this bet. How SF defends quarterbacks
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Passing yards in each game against over 246.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores a TD |
| 14%–60% |
| 15 points shortwon 33%, needs 48% |
| 220.2passing yards |
| Every game | 4 of 1331%needs 48% to break even | 15%–54% | 17 points shortwon 31%, needs 48% | 225.1passing yards |
| 240 |
| -6.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 4 | 223 | -23.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 256 | +9.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 11 | 175 | -71.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 10 | 177 | -69.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 221 | -25.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 | 241 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Wk 6 | 250 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 313 | +66.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 172 | -74.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 135 | -111.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 298 | +51.5 | Won |
| +181at Kalshi |
| 4 of 9· last season44%needs 36% to break even1 of 6 at home |
| Record is last season's |
| -18.2Not beating its price |
| Under 224.5 passing yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 5 of 9· last season56%needs 48% to break even1 of 6 at home | Record is last season's | -20.1Not beating its price |
| Under 225.5 passing yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -110at Fanatics | 7 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped54%needs 52% to break even2 of 6 at home | -18.2Not beating its price |
| Under 229.5 passing yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 7 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped54%needs 53% to break even2 of 6 at home | -18.8Not beating its price |
| Under 230.5 passing yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -113at DraftKings | 7 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped54%needs 53% to break even2 of 6 at home | -18.7Not beating its price |
| Under 236.5 passing yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -112at BetOnline | 7 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped54%needs 53% to break even2 of 6 at home | -18.5Not beating its price |
| Under 249.5 passing yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -183at Kalshi | 9 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped69%needs 65% to break even3 of 6 at home | -16.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +1150at BetMGM |
| 1 of 9· last season11%needs 8% to break even1 of 6 at home |
| Record is last season's |
| -5.1Not beating its price |
| Under 19.5 completionsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -103at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 51% to break even3 of 6 at home | -6.3Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 interceptions thrownMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 10 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped77%needs 57% to break even5 of 6 at home | -6.4Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 passing TDsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -152at BetOnline | 10 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped77%needs 60% to break even4 of 6 at home | -10.4Not beating its price |
| Over 219.5 pass + rush yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -166at DraftKings | 4 of 4· this season100%needs 62% to break even5 of 6 at home | Record is this season's | -11.7Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 rushing yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -121at DraftKings | 7 of 9· last season78%needs 55% to break even6 of 6 at home | Record is last season's | -11.8Not beating its price |
| Over 4.5 rushing yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +140at FanDuel | 6 of 9· last season67%needs 42% to break even4 of 6 at home | Record is last season's | -11.9Not beating its price |
| Over 35.5 pass attemptsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +230at DraftKings | 4 of 9· last season44%needs 30% to break even1 of 6 at home | Record is last season's | -14.8Not beating its price |
| Over 239.5 pass + rush yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -102at DraftKings | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 50% to break even4 of 6 at home | -17.0Not beating its price |
| Over 224.5 pass + rush yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -152at FanDuel | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 60% to break even5 of 6 at home | -17.9Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 rushing yardsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -102at FanDuel | 6 of 9· last season67%needs 50% to break even4 of 6 at home | Record is last season's | -18.3Not beating its price |
| Over 31.5 pass attemptsMichael Penix Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -106at DraftKings | 7 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped54%needs 51% to break even4 of 6 at home | -18.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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