This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 51% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 51% to break even | 5%–56% | 31 points shortwon 20%, needs 51% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 51% to break even | 35%–81% | 9 points betterwon 60%, needs 51% |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 51% to break even | 33%–72% | 3 points betterwon 53%, needs 51% |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 51% to break even | 12%–65% | 17 points shortwon 33%, needs 51% |
| Last season | 8 of 1173%needs 51% to break even | 48%–89% | 22 points betterwon 73%, needs 51% |
Tonight SF plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against ATL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Interceptions thrown in each game against over 0.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 0.5 interceptions thrownBrock Purdy |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 30.5 pass attemptsBrock Purdy |
| Every game |
| 10 of 1759%needs 51% to break even |
| 39%–76% |
| 8 points betterwon 59%, needs 51% |
| Wk 4 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 20 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 19 | 2 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 18 | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 17 | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | 3 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 2 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 2 | +1.5 | Won |
| -121at Kalshi |
| 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 55% to break even |
| -22.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +105at Kalshi |
| 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 49% to break even |
| -3.9Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 rushing yardsBrock Purdy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | +134at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 43% to break even | Record is this season's | -6.1Not beating its price |
| Over 18.5 rushing yardsBrock Purdy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -114at DraftKings | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 53% to break even | -6.6Not beating its price |
| Over 19.5 rushing yardsBrock Purdy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -114at FanDuel | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 53% to break even | -6.6Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 passing TDsBrock Purdy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -148at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 60% to break even | Record is this season's | -11.9Not beating its price |
| Over 14.5 rushing yardsBrock Purdy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -191at Kalshi | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 66% to break even | -12.2Not beating its price |
| Over 4.5 rush attemptsBrock Purdy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -107at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 52% to break even | -12.4Not beating its price |
| Under 20.5 completionsBrock Purdy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -116at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 54% to break even | -13.5Not beating its price |
| Over 274.5 passing yardsBrock Purdy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | +189at Kalshi | 5 of 11· last season45%needs 35% to break even | Record is last season's | -14.0Not beating its price |
| Under 224.5 passing yardsBrock Purdy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | +129at Kalshi | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 44% to break even | -14.7Not beating its price |
| Over 249.5 passing yardsBrock Purdy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | +105at Kalshi | 6 of 11· last season55%needs 49% to break even | Record is last season's | -16.6Not beating its price |
| Over 29.5 rushing yardsBrock Purdy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | +198at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 34% to break even | -17.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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