This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 53% to break even | 44%–95% | 27 points betterwon 80%, needs 53% | 10.8rushing yards |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 53% to break even | 27%–73% | 3 points shortwon 50%, needs 53% | 17.2rushing yards |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 53% to break even | 33%–72% | evenwon 53%, needs 53% | 14.9rushing yards |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 53% to break even | 35%–88% | 13 points betterwon 67%, needs 53% | 11rushing yards |
| Last season | 4 of 1331%needs 53% to break even | 15%–54% | 23 points shortwon 31%, needs 53% | 21.8rushing yards |
| Every game | 8 of 1942%needs 53% to break even | 26%–61% | 11 points shortwon 42%, needs 53% | 18.4rushing yards |
Tonight TEN plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against CLE. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 5 of 10 at home. Tonight: CLE allows 98.7 rushing yards a game to running backs, the 13th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 89.6). How CLE defends running backs
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Rushing yards in each game against under 7.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Rushing yards | Beat 7.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 1 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 0 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 7 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 41 | -33.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 12 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 18 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 2 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Wk 16 | 52 | -44.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | 34 | -26.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 14 | 19 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | -1 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Wk 12 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Wk 11 | 3 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Wk 9 | 26 | -18.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | 59 | -51.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | 22 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 6 | 31 | -23.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 14 | -6.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 7.5 rushing yardsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | -112at BetOnline | 9 of 13· last season69%needs 53% to break even5 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -21.6Not beating its price | |
| Over 8.5 rushing yardsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | -114at FanDuel | 9 of 13· last season69%needs 53% to break even5 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -21.9Not beating its price | |
| Over 9.5 rushing yardsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | +109at Kalshi | 9 of 13· last season69%needs 48% to break even5 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -17.6Not beating its price | |
| Over 14.5 rushing yardsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | +200at FanDuel | 8 of 13· last season62%needs 33% to break even4 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -10.9Not beating its price | |
| Over 17.5 rushing yardsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | +147at BetOnline | 8 of 13· last season62%needs 40% to break even4 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -16.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 receiving yardsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | +210at FanDuel | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 32% to break even7 of 10 at home | -8.3Not beating its price | ||
| Over 3.5 receptionsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | +287at DraftKings | 6 of 13· last season46%needs 26% to break even5 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -8.6Not beating its price | |
| Scores a TDTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | +650at Fanatics | 2 of 13· last season15%needs 13% to break even1 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -8.9Not beating its price | |
| Over 23.5 rush + rec yardsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | -110at FanDuel | 11 of 13· last season85%needs 52% to break even9 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -10.1Not beating its price | |
| Over 14.5 receiving yardsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | +126at FanDuel | 9 of 13· last season69%needs 44% to break even8 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -15.0Not beating its price | |
| Under 1.5 receptionsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | +181at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 36% to break even1 of 10 at home | -15.3Not beating its price | ||
| Under 2.5 receptionsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | -136at FanDuel | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 58% to break even3 of 10 at home | Record is this season's | -17.4Not beating its price | |
| Over 24.5 rush + rec yardsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | -115at DraftKings | 10 of 13· last season77%needs 53% to break even7 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -17.6Not beating its price | |
| Over 22.5 receiving yardsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | +139at BetOnline | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 42% to break even6 of 10 at home | -18.0Not beating its price | ||
| Over 11.5 receiving yardsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | -114at FanDuel | 9 of 13· last season69%needs 53% to break even9 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -18.5Not beating its price | |
| Under 9.5 receiving yardsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | +109at Kalshi | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 48% to break even1 of 10 at home | -19.1Not beating its price | ||
| Over 2.5 receptionsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | +119at Kalshi | 9 of 13· last season69%needs 46% to break even7 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -19.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.