This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 48% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 48% to break even | 5%–56% | 28 points shortwon 20%, needs 48% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 48% to break even | 13%–56% | 18 points shortwon 30%, needs 48% |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 48% to break even | 28%–67% | 1 points shortwon 47%, needs 48% |
| This season | 1 of 617%needs 48% to break even | 4%–50% | 31 points shortwon 17%, needs 48% |
| Last season | 9 of 1369%needs 48% to break even | 46%–85% | 21 points betterwon 69%, needs 48% |
| Every game |
Tonight TEN plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against CLE. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receptions in each game against over 2.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receptions | Beat 2.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 receptionsTyjae Spears |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 29.5 rush + rec yardsTyjae Spears |
| 35%–70% |
| 5 points betterwon 53%, needs 48% |
| 9 |
| +6.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 4 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 7 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 | 5 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | 6 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | 4 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | 5 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | 3 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | 3 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 3 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 | 4 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost |
| -142at Kalshi |
| 5 of 6· this season83%needs 59% to break even |
| Record is this season's |
| -18.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -168at Kalshi |
| 5 of 6· this season83%needs 63% to break even |
| Record is this season's |
| -19.4Not beating its price |
| Over 29.5 rush + rec yardsTyjae Spears · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +124at Kalshi | 8 of 13· last season62%needs 45% to break even | Record is last season's | -20.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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