This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 13% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 0 of 50%needs 13% to break even | 0%–35% | 13 points shortwon 0%, needs 13% |
| Last 10 games | 1 of 1010%needs 13% to break even | 2%–35% | 3 points shortwon 10%, needs 13% |
| Last 15 games | 1 of 157%needs 13% to break even | 2%–25% | 7 points shortwon 7%, needs 13% |
| This season | 0 of 60%needs 13% to break even | 0%–31% | 13 points shortwon 0%, needs 13% |
| Last season | 2 of 1315%needs 13% to break even | 5%–37% | 2 points betterwon 15%, needs 13% |
| Every game | 2 of 1911%needs 13% to break even | 4%–27% | 3 points shortwon 11%, needs 13% |
Tonight TEN plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against CLE. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 1 of 10 at home. Tonight: CLE allows 0.2 touchdowns a game to running backs, the fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 0.9): a tough matchup for this bet. How CLE defends running backs
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every Tyjae Spears game, newest first: whether Spears scored a touchdown.
| Date | Opponent | Result | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| This season | |||
| Wk 6 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | No TD | Lost | |
| Last season | |||
| Wk 18 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 1 TD | Won | |
| Wk 15 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 14 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 12 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 11 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 9 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | 1 TD | Won | |
| Wk 7 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 6 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | No TD | Lost | |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 receiving yardsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | +210at FanDuel | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 32% to break even7 of 10 at home | -8.3Not beating its price | ||
| Over 3.5 receptionsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | +287at DraftKings | 6 of 13· last season46%needs 26% to break even5 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -8.6Not beating its price | |
| Over 23.5 rush + rec yardsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | -110at FanDuel | 11 of 13· last season85%needs 52% to break even9 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -10.1Not beating its price | |
| Over 14.5 rushing yardsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | +200at FanDuel | 8 of 13· last season62%needs 33% to break even4 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -10.9Not beating its price | |
| Over 14.5 receiving yardsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | +126at FanDuel | 9 of 13· last season69%needs 44% to break even8 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -15.0Not beating its price | |
| Under 1.5 receptionsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | +181at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 36% to break even1 of 10 at home | -15.3Not beating its price | ||
| Over 17.5 rushing yardsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | +147at BetOnline | 8 of 13· last season62%needs 40% to break even4 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -16.5Not beating its price | |
| Under 2.5 receptionsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | -136at FanDuel | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 58% to break even3 of 10 at home | Record is this season's | -17.4Not beating its price | |
| Over 24.5 rush + rec yardsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | -115at DraftKings | 10 of 13· last season77%needs 53% to break even7 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -17.6Not beating its price | |
| Over 22.5 receiving yardsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | +139at BetOnline | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 42% to break even6 of 10 at home | -18.0Not beating its price | ||
| Under 9.5 rushing yardsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | -110at BetMGM | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 52% to break even5 of 10 at home | -18.4Not beating its price | ||
| Over 9.5 rushing yardsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | +105at Kalshi | 9 of 13· last season69%needs 49% to break even5 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -18.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.