This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 40% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 40% to break even | 5%–56% | 20 points shortwon 20%, needs 40% | 10.8rushing yards |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 40% to break even | 19%–65% | evenwon 40%, needs 40% | 17.2rushing yards |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 40% to break even | 22%–61% | evenwon 40%, needs 40% | 14.9rushing yards |
| This season | 1 of 617%needs 40% to break even | 4%–50% | 24 points shortwon 17%, needs 40% | 11rushing yards |
| Last season | 8 of 1362% |
Tonight TEN plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against CLE. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 4 of 10 at home. Tonight: CLE allows 98.7 rushing yards a game to running backs, the 13th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 89.6). How CLE defends running backs
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Rushing yards in each game against over 17.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Rushing yards | Beat 17.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 39%–80% |
| 21 points betterwon 62%, needs 40% |
| 21.8rushing yards |
| Every game | 9 of 1947%needs 40% to break even | 30%–65% | 7 points betterwon 47%, needs 40% | 18.4rushing yards |
| Wk 6 |
| 1 |
| -16.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 5 | 0 | -17.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 7 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 5 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 41 | +23.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 12 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 18 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 2 | -15.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 | 52 | +34.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 34 | +16.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 | 19 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | -1 | -18.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | 4 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 3 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 26 | +8.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | 59 | +41.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 22 | +4.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 | 31 | +13.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 | 14 | -3.5 | Lost |
| -115at BetOnline |
| 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even5 of 10 at home |
| -19.2Not beating its price |
| Under 8.5 rushing yardsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | -114at FanDuel | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even5 of 10 at home | -19.1Not beating its price |
| Under 9.5 rushing yardsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | -110at BetMGM | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 52% to break even5 of 10 at home | -18.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +210at FanDuel |
| 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 32% to break even7 of 10 at home |
| -8.3Not beating its price |
| Over 3.5 receptionsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | +287at DraftKings | 6 of 13· last season46%needs 26% to break even5 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -8.6Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | +650at Fanatics | 2 of 13· last season15%needs 13% to break even1 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -8.9Not beating its price |
| Over 23.5 rush + rec yardsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | -110at FanDuel | 11 of 13· last season85%needs 52% to break even9 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -10.1Not beating its price |
| Over 14.5 receiving yardsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | +126at FanDuel | 9 of 13· last season69%needs 44% to break even8 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -15.0Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 receptionsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | +181at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 36% to break even1 of 10 at home | -15.3Not beating its price |
| Under 2.5 receptionsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | -136at FanDuel | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 58% to break even3 of 10 at home | Record is this season's | -17.4Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 rush + rec yardsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | -115at DraftKings | 10 of 13· last season77%needs 53% to break even7 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -17.6Not beating its price |
| Over 22.5 receiving yardsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | +139at BetOnline | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 42% to break even6 of 10 at home | -18.0Not beating its price |
| Over 11.5 receiving yardsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | -114at FanDuel | 9 of 13· last season69%needs 53% to break even9 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -18.5Not beating its price |
| Under 9.5 receiving yardsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | +109at Kalshi | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 48% to break even1 of 10 at home | -19.1Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 receptionsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | +119at Kalshi | 9 of 13· last season69%needs 46% to break even7 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -19.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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