This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 27% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 27% to break even | 5%–56% | 7 points shortwon 20%, needs 27% | 12receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 1020%needs 27% to break even | 7%–46% | 7 points shortwon 20%, needs 27% | 15receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 27% to break even | 17%–54% | 6 points betterwon 33%, needs 27% | 20.3receiving yards |
| This season | 1 of 520%needs 27% to break even | 5%–56% | 7 points shortwon 20%, needs 27% | 12receiving yards |
| Last season | 6 of 1638%needs 27% to break even | 21%–58% | 10 points betterwon 38%, needs 27% | 22.3receiving yards |
| Every game | 7 of 2133%needs 27% to break even | 19%–51% | 6 points betterwon 33%, needs 27% | 19.9receiving yards |
Tonight TEN plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against CLE. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 5 of 12 at home. Tonight: CLE allows 52.8 receiving yards a game to tight ends, the 16th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 54.2). How CLE defends tight ends
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against over 24.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 24.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 5 | 0 | -24.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 5 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 14 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 13 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 28 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 17 | 1 | -23.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 9 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | 49 | +24.5 | Won | |
| Wk 14 | 8 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 23 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 12 | 51 | +26.5 | Won | |
| Wk 11 | 29 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Wk 9 | 15 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | 23 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | 36 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Wk 6 | 15 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 34 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 12 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 27 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 9 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 16 | -8.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores a TDGunnar Helm · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +575at BetMGM | 2 of 15· last 15 games13%needs 15% to break even0 of 12 at home | -9.5Not beating its price | ||
| Over 2.5 receptionsGunnar Helm · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +173at Kalshi | 7 of 16· last season44%needs 37% to break even6 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -15.3Not beating its price | |
| Over 1.5 receptionsGunnar Helm · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -161at Kalshi | 11 of 16· last season69%needs 62% to break even9 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -17.2Not beating its price | |
| Under 2.5 receptionsGunnar Helm · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -186at DraftKings | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 65% to break even6 of 12 at home | -19.9Not beating its price | ||
| Under 1.5 receptionsGunnar Helm · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +134at Kalshi | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 43% to break even3 of 12 at home | -20.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.